Dear Reader:

The basic reproduction number (Ro) of an infection is basically how many (unvaccinated) people are likely to get infected by one infected individual. According to Wikipedia’s numbers in their entry on the topic, the Ro of SARS-Cov-2 (the COVID-19 virus)  is between 1.4 and 3.9 (1.4-3.9), meaning each person infected with the COVID-19 is likely to infect between 1.4 to 3.9 people, rounded it would be each two infected people proceeding to infect  3, 4, 5, 6, 7 or 8  people (depending on the part of the world, I figure).

Let’s compare this to the Ro of other diseases caused by viruses from least to most: MERS: 0.3-0.8, Influenza (2009 pandemic strain, aka swine flu): 1.4-1.6, Influenza (seasonal stains): 1.9-2.1, Influenza (1918 pandemic strain aka The Spanish Flu): 1.4-2.8, Ebola (2014 Ebola outbreak): 1.5-2.5, COVID-19: 1.4-3.9, SARS (early 2000s): 2-5, AIDS: 2-5, Smallpox: 3.5-6, Mumps: 4-7, Rubella: 5-7, Polio: 5-7, Measles: 12-18.

As you can see, the COVID-19 is very contagious, although not as contagious as some. Thing is, there are vaccines for measles, the most contagious of all viral diseases, as well as for polio, rubella, mumps, smallpox, and influenza, but none for AIDS, Ebola,  SARS (caused by the coronavirus, SARS-Cov), MERS (caused by the coronavirus MERS-Cov ), or for COVID-19 (caused by the coronavirus, SARS-Cov-2).

The current danger SARS-Cov-2, the COVID-19 virus,  to our global population, is a combination of:

1.  It very contagious (Ro).

2. Too many people are currently infected, the first outbreak has grown into a series of global outbreaks, turned epidemics, turned into a global pandemic, meaning, as an example (I am guessing the numbers that follow for the purpose of giving this example): an Ro of 1 meant that 1000 people were infected during the first outbreak, 20,000 during the series of epidemic and 200,000 during the pandemic).

3. There is no vaccine for the disease.

4. There is no viral treatment for the disease.

5. The health care system in every country at best can take care of pre-COVID-19 patients suffering from all the existing diseases prior to COVID-19, but none is equipped (personnel, equipment, etc.) to take care of the additional COVID-19 patients that experience a severe form of the disease. Even though 95% of currently infected patients suffer a mild form of the disease and only 5% of  patients suffer severely, requiring hospitalization- that 5% translates to a huge number of patients needing hospitalization, because of the large numbers (#2, above).

anita