Dear Brandy:

First this morning I will reply to your posts here without looking anything up, using my words  based on what I remember reading and understanding yesterday and before:

Regarding an antibody test for the COVID-19 virus aka SARS-Cov-2: similar to a people being infected with any of the viruses causing the common cold (one of which is a coronavirus), the body makes antibodies for it, but those antibodies don’t work long term and the person gets a common cold again, a few months or a year later. The reason is that the common cold viruses mutate faster than other viruses, so in a matter of a few months, the common cold viruses around are too different from what they were at the time the antibodies were created. This is why scientists didn’t succeed in creating a vaccine for the common cold.

So, let’s say you take an antibody test and you have the antibodies for the virus, that doesn’t mean that you are immune to the virus a month or so in the future.

Similarly, the test that detects the virus itself, that doesn’t mean a person tested negative for the virus will not be infected with it a moment later, or an hour later.

Because an outbreak of an infectious disease in one location, turned a series of epidemics in more and more locations around the world, turned pandemic is about numbers, it is crucial that hospitals anywhere and everywhere in the world notify the WHO (and whatever institutions are affiliated with WHO) of each and every infectious disease they treat in their hospital, updating an international online database.

It is believed that the first case of COVID-19 took place in Nov 17, 2019 in Wuhan, China- I am guessing the doctors thought it was the flu at the time, but retroactively, scientists figure it was probably COVID-19. The travel ban from China, obviously should have been put into place way earlier than it was. Failures to isolate infected people early on in China and failure to ban travel from China led to this pandemic. It is a matter of numbers, and the number should have been stopped from growing As Soon As Possible.

In addition, the last SARS originated in China, caused by the SARS-Coronavirus in 2002, causing epidemics in 17 countries, I think, maybe more. China failed to notify the world early, apologized for it, but failed to regulate the bat/ wildlife food markets knowing that the virus responsible for the series of epidemics originated in bats in 2002, crossing species to humans. I figure WHO and health authorities in all countries in the world failed to pressure China to stop this dangerous bat/wildlife unregulated food market ongoing practice in China, and anywhere else where it is practiced.

I agree with you: it is very likely that many people other than the one man who flew from China to the WA, USA on Jan 15, brought the virus with them before, during and after that Jan 15 flight, people with mild symptoms or no symptoms at all.

Regarding how the virus relates to Influenza aka the flu- I will read about it more later, but what I know is that there is a vaccine for the flu. The viruses that cause the flu are not coronaviruses. They mutate (all viruses mutate each time they replicate themselves/multiply inside a host), but not as quickly as coronaviruses. Therefore it was possible to come up with a vaccine. I am assuming (read nothing about it) that the flu vaccine gets updated over time, to fit newer and newer strains of the flu viruses.

One reason the flu kills so many people is that many don’t get vaccinated (thanks in part to the antivaxers). This pandemic should be a wake up call to everyone to get vaccinated for every viral disease that can possibly infect us, including any and all airborne viruses. In addition to getting vaccinated, washing hands, cleaning surfaces etc.. are necessary preventative measures.

I am glad you fully recovered from the flu (or the COVID-19) symptoms in mid Jan. You wrote: “If I have antibodies.. then shouldn’t I be back at work helping the economy? And shouldn’t everyone else who has the antibodies be doing the same, and eating out at restaurants, and out purchasing from retailers…?”- in theory it reads right, problem is that your antibodies may not work for the newer strains of the virus.

Viruses are about numbers: once they enter a host they multiply quickly, and every time their genetic material gets replicated, mutations happen. They spread to new hosts, and each and every new host is a new opportunity for more mutations, and before you know it, there is a variety of virus strains of the earlier virus form. It is called the evolution of a virus.

The measles virus is the most contagious by far of all  viruses, yet the vaccine for it works so well. I am guessing the measles virus’s evolution is slow, that is, it doesn’t mutate fast.

A point of interest to me: the common cold virus mutates a whole lot and quickly, but the common cold is a mild form of respiratory disease. The current COVID-19 virus causes mild symptoms in 95% of people infected, and this percentage has stayed the same for a long time. Maybe it will not mutate and form a more aggressive virus strain (which will cause severe symptoms), just like the common cold coronavirus didn’t evolve into a more aggressive form. But it may evolve into more contagious forms (a higher Ro), and I think it already did, because there are different estimations of the Ro in different studies.

“perhaps the general public needs both tests: 1) the standard test.. 2) the antibody test… If the pass both tests then they should be good to go! Does that make sense?”- to allow people who test negative for the standard test to go out and about, stimulating the economy, the following will need to be done: immediately after administering the test, the people tested will need to be isolated where there is no chance for them getting infected after the test. Then when the results arrive, those with negative results will be allowed out to join the public,  only the public cannot include people who were not yet tested.

So your idea will take emptying the public from people completely, testing the first batch of people, letting out into pubic those tested negative, then testing the second batch of people, batch by batch. I don’t think it’s practical. What is practical is the current measures of isolation and waiting for the virus to peak in every population it has infected, and then die out, like what happened with the SARS of the early 200s and the MERS later.

I look forward to read more from you.

anita