Dear Reader:

An excellent website that gives you accurate numerical data with graphs regarding the pandemic is www. worldometers. info/ coronavirus (no spaces). At the top you will see first, the “Coronavirus Cases” number, that’s the number of people infected worldwide since the beginning of the pandemic. Click “countries” (in green, above the number) and you will get a data table listing countries and numbers.

Click on the country you live in and you will get the “Coronavirus Cases” number in your country. Scroll down, and the first graph you will see is the “Total Cases” graph, a linear graph, with timeline as the horizonal line, and numbers( in thousands) as the vertical line.

For as long as each country is closed to other countries, for as long as borders are closed and if people are allowed back into a country, they are adequately quarantined, what matters as far as predicting how long the pandemic will last in your country is this graph.

If you click on China, you will see that the Total Cases graph starts Jan 22 this year, the line goes up from there and flattens in about Feb 15. It remains flat to this day. This is how the graph in your country should look like: flattened.

If you click on Italy, you will see that the Total Cases graph starts Feb 15 (same start date as the countries I will mention next), and the line starts going up in the very beginning of March; line is still going up. Same if you click Iran (line starts going up in about March 2). Click Spain, and you’ll see the line starts to going up on about March 10. It is still going up. Click the UK and you’ll see, and you’ll see that the line starts going up at about March 15 and is still going up. Click USA and you’ll see that the line starts going up on about March 17, and is still going up. Click India, and you’ll see that the line starts going up slowly on March 10, but steeply on March 20.

Depending on the borders remaining closed, quarantine and social distancing practices being as adequate as these were enforced in China, the Total Cases graph in each country should follow the same change as for China: the line no longer going up. Looking at the China graph, hopefully it will happen in about roughly a month from the time the line starts going up.

* A reminder: I am not a scientist or a professional of any kind, but a member using logic so to understand available online data from a website that is dependable and as accurate as can be. I suggest that you look it up yourself and figure it out. (There are other numbers, graphs and more in that website).

anita