Dear Reader:

About flattening the curve, Wikipedia in its entry on “Coronavirus disease 2019”, under “Prevention” reads under a illustrated visual of a curve being flattened: “An illustration of the effect of spreading out infections over a long period of time, known as flattening the curve; decreasing peaks allows healthcare services to better manage the same volume of patients”-

– it means that through enforcing and practicing social distancing and hygiene, less new cases of infection occur per day, (the rate of new infections goes down). When the curve is not flattened, a great number of new patients need hospitalization in a day, more than hospitals can handle (the health care system gets overwhelmed and unable to treat the massive influx of new patients).

When the curve is flattened,  fewer new patients need hospitalization per day, and hospitals are able to  handle the lesser influx of new patients.

Here is an example of a pandemic in which the health care at the time was severely inadequate and not able to handle the great influx of new patients, (Wikipedia on the Spanish flu pandemic of a hundred years ago, from January 1918 to December 1920. It infected 500 million people—about a quarter of the world’s population at the time. The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million.

“A 2007 analysis of medical journals from the period of the pandemic found that the viral infection was no more aggressive than previous influenza strains. Instead, malnourishment, overcrowded medical camps and hospitals, and poor hygiene promoted bacterial superinfection (a second infection that happens after the first). This superinfection killed most of the victims”-

– the great death toll of the Spanish flu pandemic was not because the virus was more aggressive than its predecessors, but because patients were not adequately fed, adequate hygiene was not practiced, no spacing was practiced (hospitals were overcrowded), and these conditions made it possible for a secondary infection to spread and kill.

Back to now: without the availability of a vaccine, or an effective antiviral treatment for the current virus (neither one currently exists), the only ways to flatten the curve and in doing so, to not overwhelm the health care system (which will result in much increased fatality rate), is for all of us to practice social distancing and hygiene now, today and every day until further notice.

anita