Dear Reader:

Currently, there are over 1.6 million global Coronavirus cases, and over 97,000 deaths globally. Most cases and deaths are in the U.S. (approaching half a million cases and 20,000 deaths, and most of these are in New York City).

In  the worldometers Comparison section, it reads that “Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza”, so the comparison, very roughly,  is between less than 100,000 coronavirus deaths currently, in less than half a year, to almost 150,000 seasonal flu deaths, at the low end of the estimate,  in half a year.

The reason the world economy is shut down is because this coronavirus, SARS-Cov-2, is  more contagious and more deadly than the seasonal influenza viruses, and because there is no vaccine or treatment for it, and because it is a new virus whose behavior is not well known and is still being studied, for example: it wasn’t known if it will mutate significantly within a short time and become way more contagious and deadly (it hasn’t), and because it spread too much before governments alerted the public and enforced adequate isolation practices.

The current Covid-19 disease is a SARS disease (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), a viral respiratory disease of zoonotic (animal) origin, caused by the virus SARS-Cov-2. The previous SARS was caused by the another coronavirus, SARS-Cov-1. It took place in Nov 2002-July 2003, originated in Beijing, China, and spread to 29 countries. There were 8,096 total global cases  (compared to current 1.6 millions), and 774 deaths (compared to current 97,000), a fatality rate of 9.6%, compared to WHO’s March 3 estimate of 3.4%  for this virus.

MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), in 2002 (new infection cases still happening, not an epidemic),  was an epidemic of another viral respiratory disease of zoonotic origin, caused by another coronavirus called MERS-Cov. There were 2,494 cases and 858 deaths, fatality rate of 34.4%

The transmission rate, or basic reproduction number of a virus (Ro), is a measure of how contagious the virus is. The Ro of MERS-Cov was 0.3-0.8. The Ro of SARS-Cov-1 was 2-5. The estimate of the Ro of the current SARS-Cov-2 is 1.4-3.8.

Even though MERS’s fatality rate was much higher than the fatality rate of the current SARS, it was way less contagious. I figure, that’s one reason why MERS didn’t spread globally much, compared to the current SARS.

anita