Dear Reader:

CLOSED CASES of Covid-19 are cases that were resolved, either by recovery or by death. The following is a list of country in order of highest percentage of closed cases ending in death to the lowest:

Norway: 7,527 Cases, 237 (31%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 14%, Dead 86%.

Sweden: 18,926 cases, 3,279 (17%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 31% and Dead 69%.

Ukraine: 9,009 cases, 1,443 (16%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 60%, Dead 40%.

Philippines: 7,777 cases, 1,443 (19%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 65%, Dead 35%.

France: 162,100 cases, 67,759 (42%) if those are closed cases: Recovered 66%, Dead 34%.

USA:  991,071 cases, 176,001 (18%) of those are closed cases: Recovered: 68%, Dead 32%.

Italy: 197,675 total cases, 91,572 (46%) of those are closed:   Recovered 71%, Dead 29%.

Jamaica: 350 cases, 35 (10%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 80%, Dead 20%.

Poland:  11,761 cases, 3,005 (26%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 82%, Dead 18%.

Spain: 229,422 cases, 144,353 (63%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 84%, Dead 16% .

Canada: 47,319 cases, 20,463 (43%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 87%, Dead 13%.

Brazil: 63,328 cases,  34,450 (54%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 88%, Dead 12%.

India: 28,380 cases,  7,409 (26%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 88%, Dead 12%.

Kenya: 363 cases,  128 (35%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 89%, Dead 11%.

Denmark: 8,698 cases, 6,386 (73%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 93% and Dead 7%.

Finland: 4,695 cases, 2,693 (57%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 93%, Dead 7%.

China: 82,830 total cases, 82,107 (99%  ) of those are closed cases: Recovered 94%, Dead 6%.

Germany 158,142 cases, 120,485 (76%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 95%, Dead 5%.

South Korea: 10,738 cases,  9,007 (84%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 97%, Dead 3%.

Israel: 15,466 cases, 6,998 (45%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 97%, Dead 3%.

Thailand: 2,931 cases, 2,661 (91%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 98%, Dead 2%.

New Zealand: 1,469 cases, 1,199 (82%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 98%, Dead 2%.

Australia: 6,720 cases, 5,669 (84%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 99%, Dead 1%.

Hong Kong: 1,038 cases, 791 (76%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 99%, Dead 1%.

Singapore: 14,423 cases, 1,072 (7.4%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 99%, Dead 1%.

Greenland: 11 cases, 11 (100%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 100%, Dead 0%.

Vietnam: 270 cases, 225 (83%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 100%, Dead 0%.

My Notes/ Study:

1. The numbers are from worldometers (worldometers. info/ coronavirus/ country). Numbers are being continuously updated and have changed since I started typing this post.

2. The completeness and accuracy of the number being reported by different countries vary: in some countries the numbers are very inaccurate because testing is lower and -many Covid-19 cases are not detected, confirmed, treated and/ or reported.

3. China, where the pandemic originated, is the country with the first Covid-19 cases in the world (Nov 2019, before the virus and disease were identified),  where a strict lockdown happened before any restrictions and lockdowns were implemented in any country (Jan 23, 2020), where the Active Cases Graph peaked (the worst of the pandemic) sooner than in any country (Feb 17). This is also the country with the most recovery from Covid-19 with 99% of all cases being closed (Patients recovered or dead).

Current deaths: 4,633, divided by total current cases of 82,830, gives 0.0559, which, rounded is 5.6% death rate. Because 99% of all cases are closed, the death rate that I calculated here is very close to the death rate calculated by worldometers (number of recoveries divided by number of closed cases), which is 6%. China is the closest to a post- pandemic country, therefore the numbers and calculations in regard to China are more accurate than in other countries.

The death rate in different parts of China varies, greater in Wuhan than in other cities and provinces, depending on these variables: population density, number of older people, number of people with pre existing health conditions, number of people smoking, air pollution, household composition (ex.: single person household vs. multi-generational households), social behavior (ex.: people staying home vs going out a lot), travel in between areas, etc.

The death rate therefore in different areas within one country, and in different countries is (and will be determined post- pandemic) different.

4. The death rate in an area at the beginning of a pandemic is way higher than what will be calculated after the pandemic is over: it was the highest in China on Feb, about three months after the very first cases of Nov 2019 And it has been so far, the highest for the USA in April 14- April 23, about 3 months after the first cases of later January 2020. The death rate to be calculated after the pandemic will be lower than it was at the peak of the pandemic in each area.

5. The death rate in one city can differ according to population density within different neighborhoods. Often there are multiple Covid-19 cases and deaths within community-living situations, from large, multi generational families (ex., young adults in rural areas living with their parents and grandparents but commuting to cities like Milan to work and socialize, and Italians tend to greet each other with an embrace and kisses), to religious communities living together in crowded neighborhoods (ex. Borough Park, a neighborhood in Brooklyn, New York City, with the largest Orthodox Jewish community outside of  Israel), and nursing homes (ex., Kirkland, Washington State, USA).

6. The death rate in any one area and country has a lot to do  with the health care system: how likely is a Covid-19 patient to be admitted to a hospital, and how capable is the hospital to treat the patient effectively (availability of beds, equipment, materials, staff). When health care is severely inadequate, people die without any public record of infection and death. When health care is adequate, there are more recoveries and less deaths than otherwise.

— More on the above numbers and more of my notes later.

anita

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