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COVID-19: let's try to understand it better

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  • #350192
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader:

    1. An update on the concern in the scientific community that the virus, SARS-Cov-2, can re-infect recovered individuals: an article four hours ago, www. msn. com/ en-us/ health/ health-news/ recovered-coronavirus-patients-are-testing-positive-again-can-you-get-reinfected reads: “health officials are trying to solve a mystery: why 163 people who recovered from coronavirus have tested positive.. The KCDC (Korean Center of Disease Control and Prevention) has re-investigated three cases from the same family where patients tested positive after recovering, Kwong says. In each of these cases, scientists tried to incubate the virus but weren’t able to- that told them there was no live virus present… RT-PCR test works by finding evidence of the virus’s genetic information-or RNA- in a sample taken from the patient. According to Kwong, these tests may still be picking up parts of the RNA even after the person has recovered because tests are so sensitive… The same theory was posted by one of China’s top respiratory experts, Zhong Nanshan. In a press conference earlier this week, he said that a recovered person can test positive because fragments of the disease remained in their body. “I’m not too worried about this issue,” he added”

    – good news then: Cov-2 is not expected to re-infect recovered individuals so soon after recovery.

    2. Update regarding the Scandinavian countries where Sweden is the only country of the four that didn’t issue lockdowns and where citizens’ responses to the pandemic is up to them, in four days since my last report, above (April 14):

    Sweden reports an increase of 2,377 cases (a 21% increase), an increase of 478 deaths (a 46% increase), 150 deaths per million (a 68% increase). 9% of patients are in serious or critical condition, and 91% are in mild condition (same as four days ago). Sweden’s Daily New Cases graph does not show a flattening of the curve, to me.

    Denmark reports an increase of 731 cases (a 11% increase), an increase of 47 deaths  (a 16% increase), 60 deaths per million (a 15% increase); 2% of patients are in serious or critical condition and 98% are in mild condition. Their New Cases graph looks flattening to me (as in the desired flattening of the curve).

    Norway reports an increase of 413 cases (a 6% increase), an increase of 24 deaths (a 17% increase), 30 deaths per million (a 15% increase), and their New Cases graph looks very flattening to me.

    Finland reports an increase of 520 cases (a 16% increase), an increase of 26 deaths (a 41% increase), 16 deaths per million (an increase of 33%), 4% of patients are in serious or severe condition and 96% are in mild condition. Their New Daily Cases graph looks flattening, but has a very recent spike to it.

    My summary of this four day update: Sweden is still leading the way as far as increased number of cases (almost double the increase of Denmark and more than 3 times the increase in Norway, but only slightly more than the increase in Finland. Sweden also leads the way in the increase of deaths, almost 3 times the increase in Denmark and Norway, but slightly more than that of Finland. For some reason Finland is not doing well lately, according to these numbers. The country doing the best of the four is Norway, and the country doing the worst is Sweden.

    * An article from April 4 in nationalinterest. org/ blog/ buzz/ Nordic-countries-have-radically-different-coronavirus-strategies-lets-compare, reads: “As of March 28, the reproductive numbers (Ro) for Sweden and Norway are estimated to be 2.47 and 0.97 respectively”, which means that the virus, Cov-2 is 2.54 times more contagious in Sweden than it is in Norway.

    “Unsurprisingly, the spread of the virus is also estimated to be among the highest in Sweden and lowest in Norway.. likely reflecting the radically different containment strategies.”

    anita

     

     

    #350218
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader:

    About herd immunity, the concept is this: in a herd of elk, for example, a vulnerable, weaker elk in the middle of the herd is protected from an approaching predator by the stronger elk around him. Similarly, a person who is vulnerable to being infected by a  virus (a person who is not naturally immune to the virus by having developed antibodies for it following a previous infection, or a person who is not artificially immune to the virus by having been vaccinated), is protected from the virus if enough immune people (naturally or artificially) are surrounding the vulnerable individual.

    The herd protection of a weak elk can be reached if enough stronger elk surround the weak elk, preventing an approaching mountain lion from accessing the weak elk. The herd protection of a person who is not immune to a virus can be reached if enough immune people surround the un-immune individual, preventing an approaching virus from accessing the individual that is not immune to  it.

    The more contagious the virus, the more people are needed to be immune to the virus, for the herd protection to apply. The measles are very contagious and therefore, 90-95% of people within the herd aka population, need to be immune to it so that the  herd protection applies. Polio, almost as contagious, requires 80-85% of people within a population to be immune, so that the herd protection applies.

    Based on early estimates of Cov-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, it may be that at least 70% of the population (according to John Hopkins School of Public Health epidemiologists) needs to be immune to it, so that the herd protection applies.

    Another problem with herd immunity is that some viruses mutate so quickly that a person’s antibodies from a year before don’t work for the year after, or a vaccine from the year before doesn’t work for the year after, as is often the case with the flu.

    The plan regarding Covid-19 is to develop a vaccine and make it available to the masses. When enough people within a population get vaccinated (70% perhaps), then herd protection will be reached. Mass vaccination may take place in 2022. Before that time, some people and countries are thinking about achieving the herd protection via natural immunity, meaning that enough people recover from the infection and develop antibodies to prevent a second infection.

    The hope regarding Cov-2 is that it continues to not significantly mutate, so that people’s natural immunity following the first infection does not expire soon, and so, it will apply to repeated exposures to the virus in the coming months and years.

    It is known how many people were tested positive for the virus (confirmed cases), but not how many people are infected: too many people have not been tested. It is not known how many people were infected but are not showing any symptoms. It is not known how contagious are people who are asymptomatic.

    The virus’s Ro, that measures how contagious it is (the average number of people that one person infects), is different in various populations within a country and in various countries, depending on various factors such as population density (cities vs. the countryside), household structure (single households vs multigenerational households, community living like nursing homes, etc.), social distancing practices, etc.

    An article regarding the U.S, reads that given an average Ro of 2- 2.5,  at least 50% of the U.S. population needs to be immune to the virus for the herd protection to apply, and that only 2-3% of Americans recovered from Covid-19 so far, which is far from the 50% required.

    Therefore, it is not expected that herd immunity will be reached before massive vaccination is available, hopefully in 2022. In the meantime, what is expected is that cities and states “open things up slowly, test widely to track the virus’s spread, and impose lockdowns again before new waves of infection grow too large.. social distancing measures could be necessary on and off through 2022, according to an analysis from infectious-disease researchers at Harvard, published Tuesday in the journal Science”.

    Elizabeth Halloran is a biostatistician at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington) “says we can make it until a vaccine is available by quickly identifying and isolating infected people, tracking down who they may have infected, and providing enough protective equipment for frontline workers… If we can mitigate or suppress infection, we would be living with some infection and probably some deaths, but it wouldn’t be overwhelming. The infection would sort of limp along in the population because we wouldn’t necessarily stamp it  out, but it wouldn’t travel very fast.. That’s a different concept than herd immunity.”

    * The above info is from the following sources: ocregister. com/2020/04/16/ c0ronavirus-gove,   technologyreview. com/ 2020/04/14.. why-simply-waiting-for-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-isnt-an-option,  and the source for the quotes above is: businessinsider. com/ us-covid-19-herd-immunity-2020.

    anita

    • This reply was modified 5 months, 1 week ago by anita.
    #350512
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader:

    New York City:

    (another numbers warning: lots of numbers to follow):

    New York City (NYC) is the most populous city in the State of New York (NY), and in the whole USA, with a population of 8,175,133. NYC has 73% of the population of NY (11,202,969), and 2.5% of the USA population (about 331 millions).

    NYC’s total cases: 131,263, which is 54% of the total cases in NY (241,041), and 18% of the total cases in all of the U.S. (741,230, including 50 states, territories, military, Navajo Nation, Grand Princess and Diamond Princess ships and Wuhan Repatriated). There are 12,286 cases per million population in NYC, and 2,239 cases per million in the whole USA (NYC has 5.5 times the number of cases per million population than in all of the USA).

    NYC’s Total deaths: 8,893, which is 50% of the total deaths in NY (17,671), and 23% of the total US deaths (39,103).

    The first case of Covid-19 in NY was confirmed on March 1, 2020; it was a 39 year old woman health care worker who returned from Iran, with no symptoms on Feb 25 back, to her home in Manhattan, NYC. The number of new cases reached its peak March 18-20, with over 70% increase in new cases, and has decreased since to a 3.09% increase in new cases yesterday, April 18.

    So the Daily New Cases graph for NYC started its climb up March 1, reached its pick 20 days later, and decreased in the month following: roughly 20 days the graph went up, peaked, and has been going down 30 days.

    * to continue.

    anita

     

     

     

    #350546
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader:

    Back to New York City (NYC): first case: March 1. On March 12 there was a first time increase in new cases of over 50% from the day before. March 18-20 were the three days peak of the curve, with an over 70% increase of new cases each day.

    This are a few of the NY State (governor Cuomo) and state responses to the NYC epidemic:

    March 2 NYC mayor de Blasio tweeted to New Yorkers, to “go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus”. March 3, NYC commissioner of Health, Oxiris Barbot, said: “We are encouraging New Yorkers to go about their everyday life”. March 4, Barbot said: “There’s no indication that.. being in the subways with someone who’s potentially sick is a risk factor”. March 4, at another news conference, authorities said that the pandemic is “caused by fear”, and reassured the public that the situation will be under control given the capabilities of New York’s health care system. March 5, Barbot said that New Yorkers without symptoms should not have to quarantine.

    March 7, NY Governor Andrew Cuomo declared a state of emergency. By March 8, a number of schools and school districts announced closings or schedule modifications, all school trips were cancelled.March 12, Cuomo announced restrictions on mass gatherings, directing events with more than 500 people to be cancelled, and any gathering with fewer than 500 people to cut capacity by 50%, and that only medically necessary visits would be allowed at nursing homes; that all Broadway theatres will shut down. By March 13 all public schools were closed and drive through testing began. March 15 Cuomo announced that all NYC schools will close the following day, and gave the city 24 hours to come up with a plan for child care and food. Mayor de Blasio announced that all schools, bars, and restaurants in the city were to be closed starting March 17, except for food takeout and delivery.

    March 18, Cuomo said (again) that he will not approve of a “shelter in place” order for NYC. March 20, de Blasio called for drastic measures to combat the virus, “We have to go to a shelter-in-place model”, he said. Same day, Cuomo announced the statewide stay-at-home order, also known as the NYS pm Pause Program, with a mandate that all non-essential workers work from home beginning March 22. Only businesses declared as essential by the program were allowed  to remain open. On April 16, New York Governor Cuomo extended the state’s stay-at-home order through May 15, amid signs of the rate of hospitalizations slowly declining. He warned that any change in behavior could reignite the spread of coronavirus.

    * The statewide (including NYC) stay-at-home order started March 22. 14 days later, on April 5, for the first time, the percentage increase of new cases fell from double digit to a single digit and remained single digit all the way to yesterday, April 18, declining to the lowest increase yet of 3.09%.

    anita

     

    • This reply was modified 5 months, 1 week ago by anita.
    #350568
    anita
    Participant

    * Correction and editing of my first post today, April 19, from “The number of new cases reached its peak..”:

    The number of daily new cases reached its peak for NY State and NY City on three days: March 18-20, rising 73%, 74% and 71% respectively for the state, and 108%, 84% and 79% respectively for the city.

    The Daily New Cases graph for NY (State and City) started its climb up after the first confirmed case of March 1, went up for 20 days, reached its 3 day peak, then went down for 30 days to its lowest point today, April 19: 2.56% increase in new cases for the state and 2.4% for the city.

    NYC went from 108% increase in new cases on March 18 (its peak) to 2.4% today.

    * I took the numbers from worldometers, and from Wikipedia’s entries on “2020 coronavirus pandemic in New York State” and on “2020 coronavirus pandemic in New York City”. I came up with some of the percentages using my calculator.

    anita

    #351142
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader:

    Some people say: if the mortality rate is so low for the young (1% for ages 0-49, 4.9% for ages 50-69, 22.8% for ages 60 and older, according to worldometer), why not let the young/ younger people out and about saving the economy, and keep the older people quarantined? 1% death rate doesn’t read like too much of a risk, does it?

    The answer according to epidemiologists is that first, 1% (10 times the mortality of seasonal flu) of a huge number of people, is a big number of dead people; second, even though younger people’s Covid-19  mortality rate is low, that is, they are not likely to die in the hospital, they occupy beds and ICU resources. that otherwise are not available to people suffering from other illnesses who will die without hospitalization.

    www. washingtonpost. com/ health/2020/03/19/ younger-adults-are-large-percentage-coronavirus-hospitalizations-united-states-according-new-cdc-data has a “Figure 2”, a bar graph showing Covid-19 hospitalizations and intensive unit (ICU) admissions and death by age group in the U.S.A between Feb 12 and March 16. According to the graph among people 20-44 years old, there were about 100 hospitalizations and about 15 ICU admissions, compared to the numbers for people 65-74 years old: about 120 hospitalizations and about 35 ICU admissions.

    Same article explained that it is unknown how many of the younger people hospitalized and admitted to the ICU had underlying conditions. The article also explains that it is difficult to compare coronavirus cases by age across countries because of differences in the environment, lifestyle and demographics: in some countries young people smoke more than in other countries; in some countries many more young people live with older relatives than in other countries; in some countries it is more difficult to be admitted to a hospital than in other countries; some countries are more polluted than other countries, etc., so there are multiple factors that influence why in some countries more young people are hospitalized than in other countries.

    My  comments: according to the bar graph above, the number of hospitalizations among the 20-44 age group was significant: about 100 hospitalizations compared to about 120 of ages 65-74.

    More younger people are likely to be hospitalized because of Covid-19 in countries where smoking is more common (ex. Greece compared to India), in countries more polluted, and in countries where it is common for younger people to live with their older relatives (Italy compared to Sweden where such is uncommon), and in countries/States where the population density is much higher (ex., New York City/ State, USA, compared to Montana, USA).

    Back to the point in the beginning of this post: even though the mortality in younger people is much lower than in older people, younger people get hospitalized and therefore occupy beds and use hospital resources that are not available for people suffering from other diseases who will die without hospitalization.

    anita

     

    • This reply was modified 5 months, 1 week ago by anita.
    #351314
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader:

    Using the numerical and graph data from www. worldometers. info/ coronavirus, and my calculator, here are three countries doing well or better, as far as the containment of Covid-19:

    1. China:  there are currently only 959 active cases. Of the total cases of over 82 thousands, 98.84% of the cases closed (94% recovered and 6% died).

    2. South Korea: there are currently 2,051 active cases. Of the total cases of over ten thousand,  80.84% of the cases closed (97.2% recovered and 2.8% died).

    3. New Zealand: there are currently only 370  active cases. Of the total cases of over one thousand,  74.5% of the cases closed (98.5% recovered, 1.5% died)

    A bit more about the three countries, looking at the Total Cases Graphs, the Daily New Cases Graphs, and the Active Cases Graphs for each country:

    1. China’s daily new cases graph peaked Feb 12 & 13 has gone down ever since. China’s active cases graph peaked Feb 18 and went down 98% from Feb 18 to April 22, with an average of  53 less active cases per day.

    * March 30 (marketplace. org): “Nearly all of China’s major industrial companies have reportedly resumed production… Cars and people are back on the streets of Shanghai. The parks are open and simple stuff like going to the movies or visiting a tourist hotspot is gradually being allowed again. Over the weekend, however, officials ordered them to close to prevent the risk of new infection”.

    2. South Korea’s daily new case graph peaked repeatedly: Feb 29, March 3, March 5, March 11, and a few more lesser peaks afterwards before flattening . Its active cases graph peaked March 11 and went down all the way to April 21, with an average decrease of 126 active cases per day.

    *April 19, “Seoul (Reuters)- South Koreans are returning to work and crowding shopping malls, parks, golf courses and some restaurants as South Korea relaxes social distancing rules… a growing list of companies.. ended or eased their work from home policy in recent weeks, though many continue to apply flexible working hours and limit travel and face-to-face meetings”.

    3. New Zealand’s daily new cases graph peaked March 28, April 2, April 5,  April 8, April 10, and gone down since. The active cases graph peaked April 9 and went down an average decrease of 35 active cases per day.

    *April 20 (Washingtontimes. com): “New Zealand next Monday will ease its lockdown restrictions from ‘Level 4’ to ‘Level 3’ as officials believe the worst of the coronavirus outbreak in the country has passed”.

    My notes: containing Covid-19 in each country means to have the vast majority of active cases closed, and monitoring and containing a minimal number of active cases; then ease up economic and social restrictions gradually, monitoring new infections, bringing back restrictions where concerns arise, and so forth.

    * *The growing numbers of recovered Covid-19 patients is encouraging as far as plasma being collected and used to treat severe cases of Covid-19 (currently collections of plasma and its use to treat severe cases are in practice), and to be used for research in regard to using plasma for possible treatment of all Covid-19 patients.

    anita

    • This reply was modified 5 months, 1 week ago by anita.
    #351320
    isabelle
    Participant

    Hello Anita,

     

    I apologize I didn’t read all the post so maybe the answer is somewhere there. I wanted to know your opinion about why certain country, mine include, just don’t give anti virus treatment to people infected who are high risk (old people, sick people…). I just don’t get it because of what I read/see there and there some country have a very low death rate, even country with old people, and some with a very high rate.

    Chloroquine and others drug of that family seems to work due to the low number of rate. Here politics and famous people take it when they are infected but not the “little” people, because it s illegal… Here doctor have a death rate of 0.4% and the other part of our population 4%, isn’t it strange? What did they take?

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    #351322
    anita
    Participant

    Dear isabelle;

    Good to have you here on  my thread, what a pleasant surprise!

    You wrote: “Chloroquine and other drug of that family seems to work.. Here politics and famous people take it when they are infected but not the ‘little’ people”-

    – There is no cure for Covid-19 at this time. Some drugs are in development, but none has been approved.

    – I don’t think that anyone infected with Covid-19, in their right mind, would take Chloroquine because this is an anti-malaria drug, it has never been approved to treat Covid-19, it is not even close to being approved. Plus, an April 13 article in irishtimes. com titled “chloroquine study on covid-19 patients halted over risk of heart complications”, reads:

    “A small study in Brazil was halted early for safety reasons after coronavirus patients taking a higher dose of chloroquine developed irregular hear rates that increased their risk of a potentially fatal heart arrhythmia (an abnormal heart rhythm)”.

    So, you see, it would be dangerous to take Chloroquine for Covid-19!

    anita

     

    • This reply was modified 5 months, 1 week ago by anita.
    #351556
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader:

    * Regarding the anti-malaria medication Chloroquine, I was wrong: it was used in hospitals around the world for treatment of Covid-19 as an off-label medication. It is a common practice to use a  medication  that was approved to treat condition X (ex: malaria), for condition Y (ex: Covid-19), but such is supposed to be done in a monitored way, paying close attention to see if it helps more than it harms.

    In case of Chloroquine, the study in Brazil that I mentioned above resulted in Covid-19 patients who took the medication developing potentially fatal irregular heart beat. A recent article in  www. newsweek. com/ Swedish-hospitals-chloroquine-covid-19-side-effects reads: “Several hospitals in Sweden have reportedly stopped administered chloroquine to coronavirus patients following reports the drug was causing adverse side effects.. side effects reported to include cramps and the loss of peripheral vision”. (Therefore, I imagine that Chloroquine is no longer used as an off label Covid-19 medication in most if not all countries).

    * Sweden, where social isolation practices as well as hygiene practices are in effect, but no lockdown: there has been a significant increase in daily new cases on April 21, 22, 23 and 24 (an increase of 420 cases in four days, which is an average of 105 cases per day), and the active cases graph is still going up, not showing any flattening inclination. On the other hand, the other Scandinavian countries- they have lesser daily new cases recently, and their active cases graphs look better, with flattening movements.

    Reported today (worldometers): Sweden has 14,980 active cases; with a population of 10 millions, rounded, it’s 1,498 active cases per million population. Denmark has 2,358 active cases; with a population of 5.8 millions, it’s rounded: 407 active cases per million population. Norway has 7,260 active cases; with a population of 5.4 millions, rounded:1,344 active cases per million population, and Finland has 1,789 active cases; with a population of 5.5 millions, it’s rounded, 323 active cases per million population.

    Here is the comparison of active cases per million population: Sweden:  1,498, Denmark:407, Norway: 1,344, Finland: 323. Even though Denmark is much more densely populated than Sweden, Sweden has 3.7 times the number of active case per million population (M) than Denmark, slightly more than Norway’s and 4.6 times that of Finland.

    – the severity of the illness in those infected in Sweden has been greater than that in the other countries, and so has the number of death, currently 2,192 in Sweden (217 per 1 million population), 418 in Denmark (72 per 1 M), 201 in Norway (37 per M) and 186 in Finland (34 per M).

    Rounded, per population of 1 million, in Sweden there are 3 times the number of Covid-19 deaths than in Denmark (even though Denmark is much more populated),  6 times the number of deaths in Norway and in Finland, each. (It looks like, to me, that the non-lockdown policy brought about a greater severity of the disease and more deaths, that is, a higher death/ mortality rate).

    Looks like Denmark has done better than the others. A lockdown was established March 13, further restrictions established March 18. Finland declared a state of emergency March 16, a partial lockdown. Norway established a partial lockdown March 12, and Sweden recommended some restrictions, such as on March 24, restaurants were recommended to “increase the space between tables” (Wikipedia), but restaurants remained open.

    anita

     
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    #351666
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader:

    The world coronavirus cases is approaching 3 millions, deaths just above 200 thousands. Over 840 thousand people recovered from Covid-19 so far. Of the less than 2 million people sick with Covid-19, 97% experience mild symptoms and 3% experience serious or critical symptoms.

    China, where it started: there are currently 801 people infected with Covid-19. The number of recovered people is 96.6 times greater than the number of people who are currently infected, and 16.7 times the number of people who died. So far, 4,632 people died in China of Covid-19.

    The total cases graph started flattening Feb 18 and it appears almost flat since March 1. The daily new cases graph shows its greatest spike on Feb 12 with 14,108 new cases on that day, a 5 digit number. It went down to a 4 digit number the next day (5,090), almost half of that the next day, and lesser since. There were 143 new cases on March 5, 99 new cases on March 6, 44 new cases March 7, lesser two digit numbers all through a small spike of 108 new cases on April 12, then back to 2-digits. The next 3-digit spike was 325 new cases on April 17, then back to 2-digits, and 11 new cases today. The active cases graph peaked Feb 17 and currently and for some time, looks flat.

    January 10, the first death and 41 confirmed cases were reported in Wuhan. By Jan 22, the virus spread to major cities and provinces in China (571 cases, 17 deaths), plus cases were reported in other countries, from Hong Kong to the United States.

    On January 23, the central government of China imposed a lockdown in Wuhan (the capital of the central China province called Hubei, the most populous city in Central China with a population over 11 millions) and other cities in Hubei  in an effort to quarantine the center of the outbreak. This action is commonly referred to as the “Wuhan lockdown”. The WHO called the lockdown “unprecedented in public health history”. Travel restriction were imposed in between all the cities in Hubei, affecting about 57 million people. All public transport were suspended (buses, railways, flights, ferry services). Wuhan residents were not allowed to leave the city without permission from authorities (about 300,000 residents left Wuhan by train alone before the 10 am lockdown, a mass exodus). Major highways leaving Wuhan were shut down. All  non-essential companies were shut down.

    On Feb 2, a 7-day lockdown was implemented in which only one person per household was allowed to exit once each two days, and in which most of the highway exists were closed.

    Many areas across China (207 cities by Feb 12) implemented what is called “close management”: villages and communities kept one entrance and exit point open, and each household was allowed limited numbers (none in extreme cases) of entrances and exits. People entering and leaving were required to wear masks and receive temperature tests.

    On March 13, a couple of Hubei’s cities removed some of their strict travel restrictions. On March 25, Hubei lifted the lockdown outside of Wuhan, and on April 8, the Wuhan lockdown officially ended.

    www. cnn. com/ 2020/04/23/ asia/ Wuhan-coronavirus-after-lockdown:

    Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the pandemic: the first known cases of the virus were detected there in mid December 2019. It was the first city in the world to go into lockdown. The lockdown  lasted 76 days, and was lifted on April 8. Two weeks after the lifting, restaurants offer takeaway food and are not allowed eat-in dining.  Many stores, including Starbucks have moved their goods and services out onto the sidewalk to avoid the need for  customers to congregate inside. Barbers offer their services outdoors. Gyms are closed. Even after businesses reopened, there are not many customers. Walking down the street, almost everyone continued to practice social distancing.

    “there is nothing of the packed bustle which once- characterized Wuhan. For every opened shopfront, there is another one shuttered.. Checking into their hotel, the CNN team were required to give their travel history and had their temperature taken, before being sprayed down with disinfectant. by the hotel workers”.

    *Other resources for this post: worldometers and Wikipedia.

    anita

    #351790
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader:

    CLOSED CASES of Covid-19 are cases that were resolved, either by recovery or by death. The following is a list of country in order of highest percentage of closed cases ending in death to the lowest:

    Norway: 7,527 Cases, 237 (31%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 14%, Dead 86%.

    Sweden: 18,926 cases, 3,279 (17%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 31% and Dead 69%.

    Ukraine: 9,009 cases, 1,443 (16%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 60%, Dead 40%.

    Philippines: 7,777 cases, 1,443 (19%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 65%, Dead 35%.

    France: 162,100 cases, 67,759 (42%) if those are closed cases: Recovered 66%, Dead 34%.

    USA:  991,071 cases, 176,001 (18%) of those are closed cases: Recovered: 68%, Dead 32%.

    Italy: 197,675 total cases, 91,572 (46%) of those are closed:   Recovered 71%, Dead 29%.

    Jamaica: 350 cases, 35 (10%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 80%, Dead 20%.

    Poland:  11,761 cases, 3,005 (26%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 82%, Dead 18%.

    Spain: 229,422 cases, 144,353 (63%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 84%, Dead 16% .

    Canada: 47,319 cases, 20,463 (43%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 87%, Dead 13%.

    Brazil: 63,328 cases,  34,450 (54%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 88%, Dead <b>12%</b>.

    India: 28,380 cases,  7,409 (26%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 88%, Dead 12%.

    Kenya: 363 cases,  128 (35%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 89%, Dead 11%.

    Denmark: 8,698 cases, 6,386 (73%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 93% and Dead 7%.

    Finland: 4,695 cases, 2,693 (57%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 93%, Dead 7%.

    China: 82,830 total cases, 82,107 (99%  ) of those are closed cases: Recovered 94%, Dead <b>6%</b>.

    Germany 158,142 cases, 120,485 (76%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 95%, Dead 5%.

    South Korea: 10,738 cases,  9,007 (84%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 97%, Dead 3%.

    Israel: 15,466 cases, 6,998 (45%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 97%, Dead 3%.

    Thailand: 2,931 cases, 2,661 (91%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 98%, Dead 2%.

    New Zealand: 1,469 cases, 1,199 (82%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 98%, Dead 2%.

    Australia: 6,720 cases, 5,669 (84%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 99%, Dead 1%.

    Hong Kong: 1,038 cases, 791 (76%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 99%, Dead 1%.

    Singapore: 14,423 cases, 1,072 (7.4%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 99%, Dead 1%.

    Greenland: 11 cases, 11 (100%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 100%, Dead 0%.

    Vietnam: 270 cases, 225 (83%) of those are closed cases: Recovered 100%, Dead 0%.

    My Notes/ Study:

    1. The numbers are from worldometers (worldometers. info/ coronavirus/ country). Numbers are being continuously updated and have changed since I started typing this post.

    2. The completeness and accuracy of the number being reported by different countries vary: in some countries the numbers are very inaccurate because testing is lower and -many Covid-19 cases are not detected, confirmed, treated and/ or reported.

    3. China, where the pandemic originated, is the country with the first Covid-19 cases in the world (Nov 2019, before the virus and disease were identified),  where a strict lockdown happened before any restrictions and lockdowns were implemented in any country (Jan 23, 2020), where the Active Cases Graph peaked (the worst of the pandemic) sooner than in any country (Feb 17). This is also the country with the most recovery from Covid-19 with 99% of all cases being closed (Patients recovered or dead).

    Current deaths: 4,633, divided by total current cases of 82,830, gives 0.0559, which, rounded is 5.6% death rate. Because 99% of all cases are closed, the death rate that I calculated here is very close to the death rate calculated by worldometers (number of recoveries divided by number of closed cases), which is 6%. China is the closest to a post- pandemic country, therefore the numbers and calculations in regard to China are more accurate than in other countries.

    The death rate in different parts of China varies, greater in Wuhan than in other cities and provinces, depending on these variables: population density, number of older people, number of people with pre existing health conditions, number of people smoking, air pollution, household composition (ex.: single person household vs. multi-generational households), social behavior (ex.: people staying home vs going out a lot), travel in between areas, etc.

    The death rate therefore in different areas within one country, and in different countries is (and will be determined post- pandemic) different.

    4. The death rate in an area at the beginning of a pandemic is way higher than what will be calculated after the pandemic is over: it was the highest in China on Feb, about three months after the very first cases of Nov 2019 And it has been so far, the highest for the USA in April 14- April 23, about 3 months after the first cases of later January 2020. The death rate to be calculated after the pandemic will be lower than it was at the peak of the pandemic in each area.

    5. The death rate in one city can differ according to population density within different neighborhoods. Often there are multiple Covid-19 cases and deaths within community-living situations, from large, multi generational families (ex., young adults in rural areas living with their parents and grandparents but commuting to cities like Milan to work and socialize, and Italians tend to greet each other with an embrace and kisses), to religious communities living together in crowded neighborhoods (ex. Borough Park, a neighborhood in Brooklyn, New York City, with the largest Orthodox Jewish community outside of  Israel), and nursing homes (ex., Kirkland, Washington State, USA).

    6. The death rate in any one area and country has a lot to do  with the health care system: how likely is a Covid-19 patient to be admitted to a hospital, and how capable is the hospital to treat the patient effectively (availability of beds, equipment, materials, staff). When health care is severely inadequate, people die without any public record of infection and death. When health care is adequate, there are more recoveries and less deaths than otherwise.

    — More on the above numbers and more of my notes later.

    anita

     

     

     

    • This reply was modified 5 months ago by anita.
    #352134
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader, (continued from the previous post):

    Sweden and Norway: although Norway’s 86% of closed cases ended in death (compared to Sweden’s 69%), Norway’s death number  is 38 per million population, and Sweden’s is 244 per million population, significantly higher than that of Norway. And if you look at the daily new cases graph and the active cases graph of Norway vs. Sweden, Norway’s looks stable/ flattening in comparison to the up-and-down and still peaking graphs of Sweden.

    www. msn. com/ en-us/ news/ world/ Sweden-takes-a-different-approach-to-coronavirus-pandemic, from yesterday (paraphrased and quotes):

    1. Unlike many other countries, in Sweden there is an established mutual trust between the government and the citizens. More than 80% of the residents say they think their country’s approach is the right one, and citizens cooperate with the government’s recommendations. The government does not issues bans and restrictions; it recommends and suggests and citizens cooperate willingly. Citizens show a strong social responsibility, caring to act responsibly toward each other.

    For example, the government did not tell ski resorts to close for Easter, a popular ski holiday time, but the resorts closed anyway, by their own choice.

    Anders Tegnell, the current state epidemiologist of Sweden, speaks to the people in a calm, professional manner, and appears honest and trustworthy. “One of the real assets we have is calmness, a sense of normalcy, in this difficult situation.. Tegnell.. is an important part of that”, said Tragardh, a professor of history and civil society in Stockholm.

    (My comment: this is not the situation in the USA for example, where the president does not appear calm or trustworthy, and he offered very ignorant health recommendations during daily press conferences to citizens, and where health experts are afraid to clearly contradict him. And this is not the situation in many countries where bans and restrictions are issued, not recommended)

    2. Sweden’s healthcare system has not been overburdened, and plenty of intensive-care beds are free: the country more than doubled its ICU capacity to over 1,000 beds, and currently 550 of those are occupied. So Sweden is not in any immediate threat of not being able to handle Covid-19 cases that need hospitalizations.

    3. Sweden is a relatively small country, about ten million population only, not densely populated overall; over 50% of the homes are single-dwelling households (more than half of Covid-19 deaths in Sweden occurred in elderly homes). Many people work from home, having fast internet access, and the Swedish character is such that people keep their social distance in normal times, before the pandemic. “A popular meme is a before and after Covid picture of a bus stop, with people two meters apart in both frames.”

    4. There is a mix of actions not taken and actions taken in Sweden to contain the pandemic, but overall there has been a significant drop in social activity:primary schools remain open, restaurants are open, although tables are set farther apart. High schools and universities are closed, gatherings of more than 50 people are banned (no music concerts, sport events and the like), people over 70 and those who feel ill are encouraged to stay home. As a result of all these actions, “statistics indicate an almost 75% drop in mobility in Stockholm. Travel over the Easter weekend dropped more than 90%.

    5. Even though Sweden did not impose a lockdown, and its policy is lax in comparison to other countries, its economy is “still expected to be hit hard.. GDP could shrink by 10% this year and unemployment could rise to 13.5%. Sweden is an export-led economy and thus dependent on a global economy that has effectively shut down.. 90,000 people had filed for unemployment in the last four to five weeks”. But economies in other countries are hit worse than in Sweden.

    6. Five days ago, on April 24, a group of 22 doctors, virologists, and researchers criticized Sweden’s public health agency: “The approach must be changed radically and quickly.. As the virus spreads, it is necessary to increase social distance. Close schools and restaurants.. Elected representatives must intervene, there is no other choice”.

    Soderberg-Naucler, a Swedish immunologist and professor, said that death rates appear to be higher than those cited by the  Swedish health authority, suggesting a fatality rate closer to 1.7%, and that she does not see the ‘plateau’ that the authorities are citing and suggests that ICUs could still be overwhelmed in a few weeks time. She said that there are too many unknowns about the virus and therefore the government’s strategy is too risky.

    * India: currently, as I type this, the numbers of deaths in India is 1,008, which is 0.7 deaths per million population (unlike Sweden’s 2,462 current deaths, which is 244 deaths per million population (worldometers)

    www. msn. com/ en- us/ news/ world/ India-coronavirus-how-a-country-of-13-billion-people-has-around-1000-deaths:

    “Experts predicted that the country could expect millions of coronavirus cases.. that could cripple the country’s ill-equipped health system. Onlookers worried that the virus could spread like wildfire through India’s slums, where residents live in cramped quarters and basic sanitation often isn’t available. But so far, the world’s second-most populous country appears to have avoided the worst… Some experts say that India’s relatively positive numbers suggest the country’s nationwide lockdown to halt the spread of Covid-19 could be working– f0r now. ‘India didn’t wait for the problem to escalate’, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on April 14, as he extended the country’s 21-day nationwide lockdown until May 3. ‘Instead, as soon as the problem appeared, we tried to stop  it by making swift decisions”.

    “On March 24, Modi announced that the country was going into a three-week lockdown. The scale of it was unprecedented. India has a population of 1.3 billion, and the only country with a bigger population– China- had imposed city-wide lockdowns, but never a nationwide one… India moved into lockdown relatively quickly- it was announced when the country had reported 519 coronavirus cases. By comparison, Italy waited until it had more than 9,200 coronavirus cases before it went into a nationwide lockdown… On March 11, India suspended all tourist visas.. From March 22, all international commercial flights were banned from landing in India and all passenger train services in the country were suspended.”

    “As with every country, our understanding of the outbreak is only as  good as the numbers we have available.. India’s testing rate is extremely low per capita. Only about 48 out of every 100,000 people have been tested, compared with around 1,175 in South Korea and 1,740 in the US… (but) If there was a huge surge in Covid-19 cases that weren’t being caught by testing, then hospitals would be crowded with cases and there would be a spike in influenza- like symptoms in the community.. For now, there’s no indication of either”.

    “Even when India isn’t facing a pandemic, only about 22% of all registered deaths are medically certified. That means that, in the majority of deaths, the official cause of death has not been certified by a doctor. And there’s already evidence that some deaths may be flying under the radar. A resident doctor at one of the main government hospitals in Mumbai said last week that when dead bodies were brought into the hospital, they didn’t test them for coronavirus, even if they suspected that was how patients died… But, experts say, at this stage, it doesn’t look like there is a huge flood of coronavirus deaths.

    ‘Even if we are not testing enough and are not discovering enough, there are not enough  bodies being piled up in hospitals or in ICUs or in mortuaries.. to suggest we are in the midst of something really dramatic at this stage,’ said Saran.”

    “There’s a huge diversity of opinion about what will happen when India lifts its lockdown on May 3- whether cases will then skyrocket, or if the lockdown will have succeeded in restraining numbers… The determining factor will likely be what restrictions are still in place when the lockdown lifts”.

    anita

     

    #352306
    isabelle
    Participant

    Hello Anita and thanks for your answer!

    You wrote “– There is no cure for Covid-19 at this time. Some drugs are in development, but none has been approved.”

    I am sorry but I don’t agree. I’ll try to explain a point of view with my terrible english and my almost 0 knowledge of medecine 🙂

    Ok it’s the official voice to tell that for now nobody have treatment. That what media give us everyday BUT in the real world some country just destroyed the virus with a treatment protocol. Take a look to how south Korea deal with it! They give a chloroquine treatment to everybody (a mix of chloroquine and antibiotic) who is infected and have symptoms (whatever age or diseases) The result? A death rate below 1% despite the fact they did test a lot of people. On, what I see the global death rate is around 4%.

    Here, in France, a famous doctor is one of the best specialist of that kind of virus and of the chloroquine. He did treat people in his local hospital with it until the governement force him to stop (but still ask his help to deal with the pandemy…). The doctor is Didier RAOULT.

     

    For the chloroquine, it s the second drug the most used in the world (behind aspirine) so one of the most documented! EVERYBODY in Africa has take it at least one time in his life. I dont know wich random doctor said here to media that chloroquine is deadly. It’s 100% fake news if you take the normal dose (500mg) and nobody has die taking that dose. Some did because of overdose (heart problem i guess) and it would be basically the same if you make an overdose by taking aspirine. yes some people die with overdose of aspirine, like for the chloroquine. So in the worst case it s useless in the best it save ur life.

     

    FOr now, test are made but it takes time. You need to give chloroquine to a panel of people, placebo for another group and wait to see the result. During that time people will die, despite the fact we could save a good part of them.

     

     

    Another thing, chloroquine is cheap and easy to produce. A lot of country discretly buy ton and ton of it. Here some politics admit they did take it and now they are cured, even if it was illegal some singers or atlhetes too… There is also something really strange it s the very low death rate of doctor here (still less than 1%). Are they super human or do they have a magic potion? 🙂

     

    I am very lost about that question. If even you have a kind of idea or want to debate 😉

     

    #352322
    anita
    Participant

    Dear isabelle:

    I thought about you earlier today, wondering if you post again, and here you are, what a pleasant surprise!

    I want to re-read your post tomorrow morning because I am too tired this afternoon (woke up way too early) to look into anything scientific. So I will be back to you tomorrow, on this thread.

    Take good care of yourself and your husband and thank you for the post and the new photo.

    anita

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