Dear Reader:

Continued, from my post before last- of all the countries in the world, according to the numbers reported and presented by worldometer,  Sweden has the highest percentage of deaths out of the closed Covid-19 cases (the cases of infections that resulted either in recovery or in death): 46% of patients died (1% rise since yesterday following a two days sharp rise in deaths: 96 yesterday and 95 today). In the other three Scandinavian countries- Norway, Denmark and Finland- 3%, 5% and 6% of the patients died, respectively. This is a huge difference.

In the US, the epicenter of the pandemic, 17% of patients died (a 1% decline since yesterday). In the previous epicenter, Italy, 18% (1% decline since yesterday) of patients died. The highest percentages of deaths after Sweden are in France (30%) and in Belgium (38%).

More about the other countries, later. For now: Sweden, why is the highest percentage of deaths there? According to Wikipedia, 3.6% of the deaths were aged 0-59, 6% were aged 60-69, and 90.4% were aged 70 and older. 93% of the deaths had at least one of the following pre-existing conditions: a chronic cardiovascular disease (53%), diabetes (26%), chronic respiratory disease (18%), and chronic renal failure (16%). Most of the deaths were in Stockholm County, which is the most populated county in Sweden with about 2.4 million people (population density: 365 people per square km); almost a million people of the 2.4 millions live in Stockholm the capital, population density 5,200 people per square km.

* The total deaths from all causes in Sweden before the pandemic, from Jan 1 to May 7, was 34,656 in 2015 and in 2016, 34,314 in 2017, 35,205 in 2018, and 31,866 in 2019. In the same period of time in 2020, pandemic time, the number of deaths from all causes is 36,027 (Wikipedia)

Averaging the number of deaths from all causes in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019, the average is 34,139 deaths per year, Jan 1-May 7. The number of deaths from all causes in 2020, pandemic time, is 36,027. There have been additional 1,888 deaths in 2020 than the average of the previous five years. This means that very roughly (no way to know)  2,332 of the 4,220 people who died of Covid-19, would have died so far this year if there was no pandemic because of old age and disease.

In other words, 2,332 out of the 4,220 (55%) of the Covid-19 deaths in Sweden this year would have died from old age and health conditions if there was no pandemic going on, most dying from chronic cardiovascular disease.

Sweden’s State epidemiologist Andres Tegnell, recently said that in the short term there is a higher death rate short term in Sweden, but long term- he doesn’t know. I didn’t understand what he meant then, but I think that I understand now. I think that what he meant is that Covid-19 may be wiping out the older generation for years to come, meaning older people who were to die in 2021, 2022, etc.,  are dying in 2020, the virus advancing their due date of death, so to speak. And so, there are more deaths in 2020 (short term death increase), but in the long term, there may be fewer deaths post pandemic,  in 2021, 2022, etc.

I will continue later, but will mention the following: the death rate from Covid-19 has to do with a number of factors, a few of which are: the quality of the health system and its availability to the sick, population density, population age and preexisting conditions, and the percentage of older people living in communal settings such as nursery homes.

anita