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  • #356678
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader:

    Global Coronavirus cases reported: almost 5.5 millions, global deaths: almost 350,000 (13%), global recoveries: almost 2.3 millions (87%).

    Almost 1.7 millions of the 5.5 global million cases (31% of global cases) are in the US. Brazil is in a far second place with almost 340,000 reported cases (6.6% of global cases)

    U.S population is about 331 millions, about 14.8 million tests done (about 4.5% of the population tested) Brazil’s population is about 212 millions, about 735 thousand tests done (0.35% of the population tested).

    U.S. Covid-19 deaths are over 99 thousands (28.7% of global deaths), Brazil’s Covid-19 deaths are almost 23 thousands (6.6% of global deaths).

    The US is almost 10 million square miles and Brazil is about 3.8 million  square miles. Brazil is almost 0.4 the area of the US with a population that is 0.64% that of the US, that is, the population density is higher.

    In the next post I want to compare Covid-19 in two cities with the highest population density in their respective countries: New York City, USA, and Sa Paolo, Brazil.

    anita

     

    #356822
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader:

    New York City (NYC) is 784 square km, Sao Paulo (not the city, but the Metropolitan area aka Regiao Metropolitana de Dao Paulo, which consists of 39 municipalities): close to 8,000 square km.  NYC has a population of about 8.4 millions, Sao Paulo: about 21 millions. The population density in NYC: about 11 thousands per square km; Sao Paulo: about 3,000 per square km.

    Sao Paulo’s area is 10 times greater than that of NYC, but its population is only 2.6 times greater than that of NYC. The population density in NYC is therefore almost 4 times greater than that of Sao Paulo metro.

    But not all areas in NYC are equally densely populated: Manhattan is the most populated of the five boroughs (Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, The Bronx and Staten Island) with close to 28 thousands people per square km.

    Sao Paulo is way less populated than NYC, but among its 39 municipalities, Sapopemba is the most populated with 22 thousands people per square km (6 thousands less per square km than in Manhattans). Five of the municipalities have 15-16 thousand people per square km, and Parelheiros is the least populated with only 314 people per square km.

    Population density is a huge factor when it comes to contagious diseases. Quarantines, lockdowns,  and other forms of social distancing are the counter population density measures.

    www. bbc. com/ news/ world latin America, May 18: “The mayor of Brazil’s largest city, Sao Paulo, has said it’s health system could collapse as demand grows for emergency beds to deal with coronavirus cases. Bruno Covas said the city’s public hospitals had reached 90% capacity and could run out of space in two weeks… Sao Paulo is one of the country’s worst- hit regions, with almost 3,000 deaths so far.. Mr. Covas said he was now in talks with the state governor over introducing a strict lockdown to try to prevent hospitals being overwhelmed.. Sao Paulo (the city) has a population of about 12 million, and official figures show most residents are ignoring social distancing rules.

    A quarantine in Sao Paulo state was imposed nearly two months ago- businesses, schools and public spaces were closed and people were asked to stay at  home. But there are no costly punishments for those who flout the rules.. A recent rule brought in that made the wearing of masks mandatory is often ignored.. It doesn’t feel as though the virus is being taken seriously… Many are expecting a tougher lockdown in the week ahead”.

    anita

    • This reply was modified 6 months, 1 week ago by anita.
    #356918
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader:

    The following is a list of countries by areas and continents with the number of closed cases (the number of patients who recovered from,  plus the patients that died of Covid-19), followed by the percentage of patients who recovered and the percentage of patients who died. I boldface the lowest and highest percentage of deaths in each group of countries. The first country is Norway with 7,962 closed cases (cc), 97% of patients recovered and 3% died.

    Norway: 7,962 cc, 97%-3%.

    Denmark 10,607 cc, 95%- 5%.

    Finland 5,412 cc, 94%-6%.

    Sweden 9,096 cc, 55%-45%.

    *

    Austria: 15,825 cc, 96%-4%.

    Germany: 170,433 cc 95%-5%.

    Switzerland: 30,115 cc, 94%-6%.

    Portugal: 19,438, 93%-7%.

    Ireland: 22,666, 93%-7%.

    Spain 223,795 cc, 88%-12%.

    Italy 174,858 cc, 81%-19%.

    France: 93,631 cc, 70%- 30%.

    Belgium: 24,654 cc, 62%-38%.

    *

    Australia 6,655 cc, 98%-2%.

    *

    USA:  568,699 cc, 82%-18%. (* The USA just surpassed 100,000 deaths, a few moments ago).

    Canada: 51,183 cc, 87%-13%.

    Mexico: 57,523, 87%-13%.

    *

    Singapore: 15,761, 99%- <b>0.1%</b>.

    South Korea 10,544, 97%-3%.

    China: 82,911 cc, 94%-6%.

    Japan: 14,442 cc, 94%-6%.

    India: 66,120 cc, 94%-6%.

    *

    Saudi Arabia 48,861 cc, 99%-1%.

    UAE: 16,235, 98%-2%.

    Russia 134,936 cc, 97%-3%.

    Turkey: 124,384, 96%-4%.

    Iran: 116,945 cc, 94%-6%.

    Pakistan: 19,511 cc, 94%-6%.

    *

    Chile 30,063 cc, 97%-3%.

    Peru: 54,578, 93%-7%.

    Argentina 4,638 cc, 90%-10%.

    Brazil 177,355 cc, 87%-13%.

    *

    Ghana: 2,129 cc, 98%-2%.

    South Africa: 12,398 cc, 96%-4%.

    Nigeria 2,544 cc, 91%-9%.

    Algeria: 5,535, 89%-11%.

    Egypt: 5,638, 86%-14%.

    — More about these numbers (all taken from worldometer), later.

    anita

     

     

     

     

    • This reply was modified 6 months, 1 week ago by anita.
    #356882
    jessica
    Participant

    Anita-

    Thank you for taking the time to do so much research and post so much information in one place. Reading your posts has been very informative and straight forward. I have a challenging time reading news about Covid-19 because it is really hard to discern what is most important. I often feel like I am being inflicted with trauma from being inundated with bits of information that I don’t need or want. Your posts feel rooted in reality and scientifically based, with good reference points. Blessings to you during this very trying time. May we all stay safe and sane, kind and compassionate, during a mounting time of loss, grief and fear.

    #357001
    anita
    Participant

    Dear jessica:

    You are welcome. I didn’t know anyone read my posts here, and to read yours, stating that you believe that my study is “rooted in reality and scientifically based, with good reference points”, it is very meaningful and encouraging to me, motivating me to study the topic further, more and more.  Thank you very much for your post, and feel free to post again anytime, with your thoughts  and feelings in regard to the global pandemic that affects all of us in significant ways.

    anita

    • This reply was modified 6 months, 1 week ago by anita.
    #357033
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader:

    Continued, from my post before last- of all the countries in the world, according to the numbers reported and presented by worldometer,  Sweden has the highest percentage of deaths out of the closed Covid-19 cases (the cases of infections that resulted either in recovery or in death): 46% of patients died (1% rise since yesterday following a two days sharp rise in deaths: 96 yesterday and 95 today). In the other three Scandinavian countries- Norway, Denmark and Finland- 3%, 5% and 6% of the patients died, respectively. This is a huge difference.

    In the US, the epicenter of the pandemic, 17% of patients died (a 1% decline since yesterday). In the previous epicenter, Italy, 18% (1% decline since yesterday) of patients died. The highest percentages of deaths after Sweden are in France (30%) and in Belgium (38%).

    More about the other countries, later. For now: Sweden, why is the highest percentage of deaths there? According to Wikipedia, 3.6% of the deaths were aged 0-59, 6% were aged 60-69, and 90.4% were aged 70 and older. 93% of the deaths had at least one of the following pre-existing conditions: a chronic cardiovascular disease (53%), diabetes (26%), chronic respiratory disease (18%), and chronic renal failure (16%). Most of the deaths were in Stockholm County, which is the most populated county in Sweden with about 2.4 million people (population density: 365 people per square km); almost a million people of the 2.4 millions live in Stockholm the capital, population density 5,200 people per square km.

    * The total deaths from all causes in Sweden before the pandemic, from Jan 1 to May 7, was 34,656 in 2015 and in 2016, 34,314 in 2017, 35,205 in 2018, and 31,866 in 2019. In the same period of time in 2020, pandemic time, the number of deaths from all causes is 36,027 (Wikipedia)

    Averaging the number of deaths from all causes in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019, the average is 34,139 deaths per year, Jan 1-May 7. The number of deaths from all causes in 2020, pandemic time, is 36,027. There have been additional 1,888 deaths in 2020 than the average of the previous five years. This means that very roughly (no way to know)  2,332 of the 4,220 people who died of Covid-19, would have died so far this year if there was no pandemic because of old age and disease.

    In other words, 2,332 out of the 4,220 (55%) of the Covid-19 deaths in Sweden this year would have died from old age and health conditions if there was no pandemic going on, most dying from chronic cardiovascular disease.

    Sweden’s State epidemiologist Andres Tegnell, recently said that in the short term there is a higher death rate short term in Sweden, but long term- he doesn’t know. I didn’t understand what he meant then, but I think that I understand now. I think that what he meant is that Covid-19 may be wiping out the older generation for years to come, meaning older people who were to die in 2021, 2022, etc.,  are dying in 2020, the virus advancing their due date of death, so to speak. And so, there are more deaths in 2020 (short term death increase), but in the long term, there may be fewer deaths post pandemic,  in 2021, 2022, etc.

    I will continue later, but will mention the following: the death rate from Covid-19 has to do with a number of factors, a few of which are: the quality of the health system and its availability to the sick, population density, population age and preexisting conditions, and the percentage of older people living in communal settings such as nursery homes.

    anita

     

    #357250
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader:

    Continued, my note:  about 55% of Covid-19 deaths in Sweden from Jan 1-May 7 2020, would have died within that same time period if there was no pandemic. A significant percentage of the remaining 45% patients who died before May 7, 2020, would have died later this year and in the next year or two. Because the virus behind Covid-19 targets the older people, public officials in every country should have attended to the older population first, to protect them and the younger people who come in contact with the old. Nursing homes, where they exist, should have been attended to first, before establishing social distancing restrictions for the general population.

    Because the virus greatly favors the older population, the death rate within different countries has a lot to do with the percentage of old people in different countries. Nursing homes have been a favorite place for the virus, further escalating the death rate among the old. In countries where people live longer (developed countries), such as Italy, France, Sweden, and other European countries, Covid-19 overall death rates are higher. On the other hand, in countries where people don’t live as long, the Covid-19 death rates are lower.

    Another factor regarding developed countries is that food has been plentiful for decades and technology made physical activity an option, leading to widespread obesity. The virus behinds Covid-19 favors the older and the obese. For example, in France, of the current 93,631 closed cases, 30% died. The high number of deaths is due to old age and obesity.

    Notice regarding the following article, Type 1 diabetes has nothing to do with obesity, but “Type 2 diabetes primarily occurs as a result of obesity and lack of exercise” (Wikipedia), BMI is Bodily Mass Index, used to measure obesity:

    www. msn. com/ en-us/ news/ technology/ one in 10 covid-19 patients with diabetes die within a week study finds, today, reads: “the average age of all the patients in the study was 70.. patients 75 years and older were 14 times more likely to die than patients under 55”, “The research looked at more than 1,300 coronavirus patients in 53 hospitals in France between March 10 and March 31. Most – 89%- had Type 2 diabetes; 3% had Type 1 Diabetes.. Obese patients with diabetes were also more likely to die, researchers said. Obesity is becoming a major risk factor for bad outcomes both in people with and without diabetes, said Dr. Robert Eckel, the president of medicine and science at the American Diabetes Association, who was not involved in the study… BMI turned out to be independently associates with the primary outcome… The study suggests that special attention should be paid to seniors with long- term diabetes”.

    Let’s look at Vietnam, currently only 328 cases and zero deaths. Of 279 closed cases, 100% recovered. www. msn. com/ en-us/ news/ world/ Vietnam how this country of 95 million kept its coronavirus death toll at zero, states today that the zero deaths is remarkable in Vietnam “considering Vietnam is a low-middle income country with a much less-advanced healthcare system than others in the region. It only has 8 doctors for every 10,000 people, a third of the ration is South Korea, according to the World Bank”.

    “To skeptics, Vietnam’s official numbers may seem too good to be true. But Guy Thwaites, an infectious disease doctor who works in one of the main hospitals designated by the Vietnamese government to treat Covid-19 patients, said the numbers matched the reality on the ground. ‘I go to the wards every day, I know the cases, I know there has been no death,’ said Thwaites, who also heads the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit in Ho Chi Minh City…  So how has Vietnam seemingly bucked the global trend and largely escaped the scourge of the coronavirus? The answer, according to public health experts, lies in a combination of factors, from the government’s swift, early response to prevent its spread, to rigorous contact- tracing and quarantine and effective public communication.

    “If according to public health experts, lies in a combination of factors, from the government’s swift, early response to prevent its spread, to rigorous contact-tracing and quarantining and effective public communication. Acting early: Vietnam started preparing for a coronavirus outbreak weeks before its first case was detected… By early January, temperature screening was already in place for passengers arriving from Wuhan at Hanoi’s international airport.. By mid-January, Deputy Prime Minister Vu Duc Dam was ordering government agencies to take ‘drastic measures’ to prevent the disease from spreading into Vietnam, strengthening medical quarantine at border gates, airports and seaports. On Jan 23, Vietnam confirmed its first two coronavirus cases.. On February 1, Vietnam declared a national epidemic- with just six confirmed cases recorded across the country… On February 12, it locked down an entire rural community of 10,000 people north of Hanoi for 20 days over seven coronavirus cases… the speed of Vietnam’s response was the main reason behind its success..

    From the start, the Vietnamese government has communicated clearly with the public about the outbreak… raising awareness of the outbreak through loudspeakers, street posters, the press and social media… Thwaites said Vietnam’s rich experience in dealing with infectious disease outbreaks, such as the SARS epidemic from 2002 to 2003 and the following avian influenza, had helped the government and the public to better prepare for Covid-19 pandemic. ‘The population is much more respectful of infectious diseases than many perhaps more affluent countries or countries that don’t see as much infectious disease- Europe, the UK and the US for example,’ he said.”

    My note: One factor as to why there are zero Covid-19 deaths so far that was not mentioned in the article, is the age demographics in Vietnam. According to www. indexmundi. com/ Vietnam/ age structure (same website for all of the numbers that follow), 84.75% of the population is younger than 54, and 15.25% is 55 and older. (Current, total Covid deaths: zero).

    China:  77.38% of the population is younger than 54, and  22.62% is 55 and older. (Current total Covid-19 deaths: 4,634,   3 per 1 million population).

    Norway:  71.34% of the population is younger than 54, and 28.66% is 55 and older. (Current total Covid-19 deaths: 236,   44 per million population).

    South Korea: 70.35% of the population is younger than 54, and 29.64% is 55 and older. (Current total Covid-19 deaths: 269,   5 per million population)

    Italy: 65.03% of the population is younger than 54, and 34.98% is 55 and older. (Current total Covid-19 deaths: 33,340,  551 per million population).

    * The preparedness of the health system in each country is a huge factor in regard to the Covid-19 death rate, but age is also a big factor: even though there is lesser health care available in Vietnam, there are fewer older people there (partly a result of a lesser health care system, I am guessing), and fewer obese people, and therefore, fewer people in Vietnam have been vulnerable to Covid-19 than in other countries. The government’s preparedness and response in Vietnam, as the article indicates, is also a huge factor in producing the current zero death number there. Also, in countries were nursing homes is a social practice, the death rates escalated.

    anita

    • This reply was modified 6 months ago by anita.
    • This reply was modified 6 months ago by anita.
    #357256
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader:

    Thorax is one of the world’s leading respiratory medicine journals, publishing clinical and experimental research articles on respiratory medicine and more. Here is a recent article from three days ago (thorax. bjj. com/ content/ early/ 2020/05/27), all that follow is quotes:

    “We describe what we believe is the first instance of complete Covid-19 testing of all passengers and crew on an isolated cruise ship during the current Covid-19 pandemic. Of the 217 passengers and crew on board, 128 tested positive for Covid-19 on reverse transcription-PCR (59%). Of the Covid-19 positive patients, 19% (24) were asymptomatic; 6.2% (8) required medical evacuation; 3.1% (4) were intubated and ventilated; and the mortality was 0.8% (1). The majority of Covid-19-positive patients were asymptomatic (81%, 104 patients)…

    The expedition cruise ship departed from Ushuaia, Argentina, for a planned 21-day cruise of the Antarctic Peninsula, including Elephant Island.. The ship departed mid- March 2020, after the global Covid-19 pandemic was declared by the WHO, with all 128 passengers and 95 crew screened for Covid-19 symptoms, and body temperatures were taken before boarding. No passengers or crew that had transit through China, Macau, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea or Iran in the previous 3 weeks were permitted to board, given that these countries were where Covid-19 infection was most prevalent at the time. Multiple hand hygiene stations were positioned throughout the ship and especially in the dining area… all passengers and crew had regular body temperature reviews performed by the ship’s two physicians.

    The first recorded fever on board the ship was a febrile passenger on day 8. Isolation protocols were immediately commenced, with all passengers confined to cabins and surgical masks issued to all. Full personal protective equipment was used for any contact with any febrile patients, and N95 masks were worn for any contact with passengers in their cabins.  The crew still performed duties, including meal services to the cabin doors three times a day, but rooms were not serviced…

    Further fevers were detected in three crew on day 10, two passengers and one crew on day 11, and three passengers on day 12.. The majority of febrile patients had improved with symptomatic treatment and were afebrile on arriving at Montevideo. Rapid testing kits for Covid-19 were delivered on board and performed on six passengers and crew, who had initial fevers. All returned negative results on day 14… Three additional passengers and crew developed fever on day 14, but with mild cough and lethargy only. One of these passengers, a 68 year old man who was a lifelong non-smoker with no comorbidities, deteriorated and required urgent medical evacuation to a hospital in Montevideo on day 17. He was intubated and ventilated and tested positive for Covid-19.

    A total of eight passengers and crew were medically evacuated from the ship to hospitals in Montevideo, all for impending respiratory failure, including a 70 year old woman with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (evacuate day 20), a 65 year old woman with no comorbidities (evacuated day 21), and two crew and one passenger evacuated on day 22. A seventh passenger, a 68 year old man, developed fever on day 23 and was evacuated for hypoxaemia on day 24. One of the two ship physicians required medical evacuation on day 27 also for hypoxaemia. All evacuated patients subsequently tested positive..

    Of the 217 passengers and crew on board, 128 tested positive for Covid-19 (59%)… There were 10 instances where two passengers sharing a cabin recorded positive and negative results.

    Despite 128 (59%) of the population testing positive, fever and mild symptoms were present in only 16 of 128 Covid-19 positive patients (12.5%), with another 8 medically evacuated (6.2%) and 4 requiring intubation and ventilation (3.1%). There has unfortunately been one death to date (0.8%). There were therefore a total of 24 Covid-19 positive patients who were symptomatic (19%), with the majority being asymptomatic (104 patients or 81%).

    From the departure date in mid-March 2020 and for the next 28 days, the expedition cruise ship had no outside human contact and was thus a totally isolated environment in this sense.

    We conclude from this observational study that.. The majority of Covid-19 positive patients were asymptomatic (81%).. there may be a significant false-negative rate with RT-PCR testing. Follow-up testing is being performed to determine this… The timing of symptoms in some passengers (day 24) suggests that there may have been cross contamination after cabin isolation”-

    – more about this article, later.

    anita

    • This reply was modified 6 months ago by anita.
    #357275
    jessica
    Participant

    This is really fascinating. It would seem that the bulk of Covid-19 cases are asymptomatic, 80% in this case. When asymptomatic people are out and about in society, feeling well, going about their business, they are unknowingly (potentially) spreading virus among the people they have prolonged contact with. Hence masks for all being a viable solution until there is a treatment protocol, or vaccine of course, for this new illness. I also read recently that many in the medical and science industry believe that Covid cycled widely around the US during our flu season this year and many may have unknowingly had it already. I am certainly following the stories of this tenacious virus to see how it pans out. My hope is that as it mutates through the months, it becomes less potent and less contagious.

    Thanks for posting:)

    Jess

    #357303
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Jessica (Jess):

    So glad once again to read from you here, and to read such an intelligent and well written post. Regarding masks, yes, we should all wear masks or cloth face coverings all the time when in enclosed/ indoor areas, and outdoors where we are not distanced enough from others. The virus is way more infectious indoors than outdoors.

    www. cdc.  gov/ coronavirus: “We now know from recent studies that a significant portion of individuals with coronavirus lack symptoms (‘asymptomatic’) and that even those who eventually develop symptoms (‘pre-symptomatic’) can transmit the virus to others… In light of this new evidence, CDC recommends wearing cloth face coverings in public settings .. e.g., grocery stores and pharmacies.. It is critical to emphasize that maintaining 6- feet social distancing remains important to slowing the spread of the virus… The cloth face coverings recommended are not surgical masks or N-95 respirators. Those are critical supplies that must continue to be reserved for healthcare workers and other medical first responders”.

    www. who. int/.. when and how to use masks: “If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with Covid-19”- the reason WHO has a different instruction in regard to wearing masks is the same concern as the CDC’s, which is that if everyone wears a mask, there won’t be enough for health care workers, a concern that is more acute in poor countries with fewer masks available. (I didn’t read a mention of cloth face coverings by WHO).

    WHO provides these instructions regarding wearing masks: “Before putting on a mask, clean hands with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water. Cover mouth and nose with mask and make sure there are no gaps between your face and the mask. Avoid touching the mask while using it; if you do, clean your  hands .. Replace the mask with a new one as soon as it is damp and do not re-use single use masks. To remove the mask: remove it from behind (do not touch the front of mask); discard immediately in a closed bin; clean hands with alcohol-based rub or soap and water”.

    * You wrote: “It would seem that the bulk of Covid-19 cases are asymptomatic”- in the CDC quote above there is a distinction between asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic. Asymptomatic means people who .. never develop symptoms, and pre-symptomatic are people who develop symptoms later. If the bulk of people who are infected are also asymptomatic, this means that if you and I are infected (and if we are younger and with no pre-existing conditions) to be asymptomatic as well and never develop symptoms.

    But of course, we should wear masks or cloth face coverings because we don’t want to risk getting infected and we don’t want to spread the infection to people who are older and/ or with pre-existing conditions.

    Regarding a new wave of infections in the fall, in Wikipedia‘s entries on the pandemic in different countries, it states a number of waves. For example, in its entry on Singapore, it lists: “Wave 1: Imported cases from China (January 2020)… a total 13 confirmed cases, all of whom were visitors to Singapore from China.. Wave 2: Early local clusters (February to March 2020)… More clusters emerged at various locations, where there were large scale gatherings.. Wave 3: Returning Singaporeans and permanent residents from overseas (March 2020).. Wave 4: Spread among migrant worker population (April 2020 to Present) In April, the bulk of cases began to shift from imported cases to migrant workers living in dormitories”-

    – so appearing in waves is the natural behavior of an infectious epidemic or pandemic, it goes up in one area, then down, then up in another area, down.. etc., like waves in an ocean. The talk about a second wave refers to a big wave in the fall and winter of this year, a coronavirus wave that will coincide with the flu season.

    www. health. com/… cdc warns second wave coronavirus (April 23): “The second wave? Think of it as literally a second wave, it  comes behind the first, doesn’t get that high, but ebbs and flows.. Those ‘ebbs and flows’ depend on the success of protective and preventive measures”, and an example of these ebbs and flows is given regarding China: the outbreak in Hubei (the epicenter of the original outbreak) was the first wave, then it was controlled, “After reporting near-zero local transmissions over several weeks, a new batch of Covid-19 cases in the city of Harbin, at the border with Russia”- that’s a second wave which “resulted in fresh lockdowns”.

    “It’s still too early to  identify Covid-19 patterns, though Dr. Adalja believes the biggest thread of a second wave appears to be during fall, which is the start of flu season… ‘A second wave starting in the fall could occur mixed with the flu and prove to be especially challenging for hospital systems to cope with,’ he says…

    Urvish Patel, MD, MPH, a public health professional in the neurology department at Mount Sinai Hospital, New York.. points out that other SARS and MERS viruses have not shown a second wave, but says we should be ready for any possible condition. He advises that ‘prevention and precaution’ is always the best approach.”

    * You wrote: My hope is that as it mutates through the months, it becomes less potent and less contagious”- which is what happened with the first SARS and MERS mentioned in the paragraph above, resulting in no additional waves of SARS (it was declared contained in 2003 by WHO), and no significant waves in the case of MERS.

    – thank you for your thought provoking post, Jessica (or do you prefer Jess?) I hope to read from you again, anytime you are up to posting here.

    anita

     

     

    • This reply was modified 6 months ago by anita.
    #357369
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader:

    My notes regarding the Thorax article of four days ago: it is about a cruise ship that departed Argentina in mid March and for 28 days there was no contact between the population within the ship (passengers and crew) and the population outside the ship. Therefore, the population within the ship was isolated. All of the passengers and crew were tested for Covid-19. This ship then, is the first and only situation were all of a population were tested for Covid-19.

    100% of the population was tested for Covid-19. 41% of the population tested negative and 59% tested positive. 19% of those tested positive were symptomatic, and 81% were asymptomatic.

    81% of the population that tested positive for Covid-19 was asymptomatic.

    what if about 81% of the global population is asymptomatic? On one hand it would mean that 81% of the population may infect others. On the other hand, it would mean that 81% of infected people do not get sick at all.

    Currently, worldometer lists over 3 million global active cases of Covid-19, and 98% of the symptomatic being “in mild condition”.

    — What if 19% of the population is symptomatic (and 98% of the 19% are in mild condition)..?

    (Later, perhaps).

    anita

     

    • This reply was modified 6 months ago by anita.
    #357377
    anita
    Participant

    * testing

     

    #357545
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader:

    The CDC (Center of Disease Control and Prevention, USA) has an animated and static graphs on its website titled: “U.S. Mortality: Death Certificates listing Pneumonia, Influenza and Covid-19”. The mortality rate from Influenza and pneumonia in 2018 was 10.9% in 2018,  7.7% in 2019, and 7.6% during the 2019-20 flue season. The mortality rate from Influenza, Pneumonia and Covid-19 in Jan-April 11, 2020 was 24.8%.

    Another graph is titled: “Rates of hospitalization for Covid-19 Increases with age” shows that in a population of one million people,  3 children ages 0-4, 1 child ages 5-17 25 people ages 18-49, 74 people ages 50-64, and 452 people ages 65 and older were hospitalized.

    * About pneumonia (wikipedia): it is an inflammatory condition of the lungs, caused by infections with viruses, or bacteria and less commonly by fungi and parasites, or by certain medications or conditions such as autoimmune diseases (abnormal immune responses). Viruses account for about 33% of pneumonia cases in adults and 15% in children. Commonly implicated viruses include rhinoviruses, coronaviruses, and influenza virus and Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2).

    Viruses reach the lungs in different routes: some such as measles and herpes simplex reach the lungs via the blood. Others reach the lungs when people  touch contaminated objects and then touch their eyes or nose. Others occur when contaminated airborne droplets are inhaled through the mouth and nose and make their way to the lungs. The invasion of the lungs may lead to varying degrees of cell death. When the immune system responds to the infection, even more lung damage may occur. It is primarily white blood cells that generate the inflammation.

    As well as damaging the lungs, many viruses simultaneously affect other organs and thus disrupt other body functions. Viruses also make the body more susceptible to bacterial infections; in this way, bacterial pneumonia can occur at the same time as viral pneumonia.

    Each year, pneumonia affects about 450 million people globally=7% of the population,  and results in about 4 million deaths. (In the US there are more than 250,000 pneumonia visits to the hospital and about 50,000 people die from pneumonia annually). With the introduction of antibiotics and vaccines in the 20th century, survival has greatly improved. Nevertheless, in developing countries, and also among the very old, the very young and the chronically ill, pneumonia remains a leading cause of death.

    * About Influenza (wikipedia) is an infectious disease caused by an influenza virus. Influenza symptoms are a mixture of common cold and pneumonia.Influenza spreads around the world in yearly outbreaks, resulting in about 3-5 million cases of severe illness and about 290,000-650,000 deaths (there are between 140,000-810,000 influenza hospitalizations and between 12,000-61,000 deaths from influenza in the US annually since 2010, cdc). About 20% of unvaccinated children and 10% of unvaccinated adults are infected each year. Death occurs mostly in high risk groups- the young, the old, and those with other health problems. In the 20th century, three influenza pandemics occurred: Spanish influenza in 1918 (17-100 million deaths), Asian influenza in 1957 (2 million deaths), and Hong Kong Influenza in 1968 (1 million deaths). In 2009 WHO declared an outbreak of a new type of influenza A/ H1N1 to be a pandemic.

    Approximately 33% of people with influenza are asymptomatic. Most people recover completely in about 1-2 weeks, but others will develop life-threatening complications, such as pneumonia. Thus, influenza can be deadly, especially for the weak, young  and old, those with compromised immune systems, or the chronically ill.

    – to be continued.

    anita

     

    #358472
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader:

    Currently on the worldometer website, there are almost 430,00o global Covid-19 deaths, close to 3.4 million active cases of which 98% are in mild condition and 2% are in serious or critical condition. Of the over 4.4 million closed cases, 90% recovered/ discharged and 10% died.

    The US accounts for about 117 thousands of the 430 thousands global deaths (55 deaths per million people). Brazil accounts for about 42 thousands of the 430 thousands global deaths (197 deaths per million), and the UK accounts for 42 thousand deaths of the 430 thousands global deaths (611 deaths per million).

    As far as numbers of deaths within a population of a million people, these are the countries with most to least: San Marino (1,238), Belgium (833), Spain (580), Italy (566), Sweden (483), France (450). All other countries report lesser numbers.

    * San Marino is a very small country completely surrounded by Italy, an enclave.

    A few Covid-19 news from around the world:

    * California‘s surge in the number of Covid-19 cases is a result of increased testing (60-80 thousand testing a day), not to the ongoing re-opening of businesses (Los Angeles Times).

    * An area of the Chinese capital Beijing has been put under strict lockdown measures after the city’s first coronavirus cases in more than 50 days (BBC).

    * The number of Covid-19 cases in India’s worst affected city, Mumbai, has surpassed Wuhan in China, where the virus first appeared. Hospitals in the country are struggling, people are dying without getting the treatment they need (BBC).

    * Surfers have returned to the beaches in Rio and this week in Sao Paulo, shops and malls reopened- but this is the confusing bit- quarantine has been extended in Sao Paulo until the end of the month. Nobody knows where this pandemic is heading in Brazil. With such woeful levels of testing it’s hard to get a true picture of the extent of the virus here.

    * International flights to and from Greek‘s main airports will resume on June 15, after a nearly three-month lockdown. Accounting for about 20% of Greece economic output, tourism is vital for Greece. The country will conduct coronavirus tests on all visitors arriving from airports deemed high-risk by the European Union’s aviation safety agency. Visitors will be quarntined up to 14 days, depending on the test result (The Sun)

    * Turkey reopened restaurants, cafes, gyms, parks, beaches and museums on June 1 and eased stay-at-home orders for senior citizens and minors earlier this week. People crowded sea fronts and parks in the first weekend after the relaxation, often without masks or flouting social distancing (The Sun).

    * Italy, Germany, France and the Netherlands have signed a contract with AstraZeneca to supply European citizens with a vaccine against the coronavirus, Italy’s health minister said on Saturday. The contract is for 400 million doses of the vaccine, which was developed with the University of Oxford and whose experimentation phase is already advanced and expected to end in autumn (The Sun).

    anita

     

    #358569
    anita
    Participant

    Dear Reader:

    1) msn. com/ en- us/news/ world/ a frantic search for hospital beds as pandemic rages in India: “The surge in coronavirus cases comes weeks after India began dismantling what as one of the world’s most stingiest lockdowns.. India and two of its neighbors- Pakistan and Bangladesh- concluded that the cost of such lockdowns was too high to bear. With the restrictions withdrawn, cases are rising quickly in all three countries, turning South Asia into a new hot spot for the pandemic… Before the pandemic hit, India had only 0.5 hospital beds per 1.000 people.. compared with 3.2 in Italy and 12.3 in South Korea. It also suffers from a chronic shortage of medical personnel.”

    Worldometer regarding India (population close to 1,380 million people, rounded, 1.4 billion), just over 333 thousands coronavirus cases, 9,520 deaths. Of the almost 180 thousands closed cases, 95% recovered/ discharged, and 5% died. Over 12 thousand new cases and 309 new deaths were reported yesterday. In comparison, in the US (population almost 331 millions), over 25 thousand new cases and 702 new deaths were reported yesterday.

    2) msn. com/ en- us/ health/medical/ 40 percent of  coronavirus patients have this one symptom for weeks: “according to a new study, which was published by the preprint server medRxiv and is yet to be peer- reviewed, many patients with milder cases of coronavirus have experienced enduring symptoms. Though these patients were able to avoid the hospital and other serious medical intervention, over 40 percent reported one lingering problem three weeks after their first onset of symptoms: they still had a persistent cough.

    In addition to this discovery, the study found that other symptoms persisted to a lesser degree after three weeks of  illness… 24 percent struggled with shortness of breath during physical exertion, 23 percent hadn’t seen the return of their sense of smell and taste, and an additional 23 percent were still experiencing sinus congestion. While the majority of known coronavirus patients tend to recover within 14 days, this new data indicates that for some, there may be no easy resolution of the illness- and no clear-cut timeline for recovery…

    As the authors of the article note, ‘Post-viral syndromes have been associated with numerous viruses in the past, but until the pandemic, they were considered relatively rare’.  They further explain that researchers remain unclear as to whether extended coronavirus symptoms indicate a long-tail recovery, or if instead they reflect a cyclical recurrence of the illness itself, still thriving in the body. Unfortunately, this latter theory has precedent: three fourths of cases of myalgic encephalomyelitis/ chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) are the result of viral or bacterial infection. It is possible that for some, coronavirus could pose a lifetime threat.

    … it’s likely that we’re quarantining at least 40 percent of coronavirus patients for too short a time. Health authorities recommend isolating for 14 days after initial symptoms.. In light of this new information, it seems that 14 days should be treated as the bare minimum.”

    – to  be continued…

    anita

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