June 15, 2020 at 12:03 pm #358640
Continued from yesterday:
1. Worldometer: Just over 342 thousand coronavirus cases in India (an increase of about 9 thousands from yesterday), almost 99 thousands deaths (an increase of 376 from yesterday).
news. yahoo. com/ india’s Chennai reimpose lockdown coronavirus cases surge (today): “New Delhi- A lockdown will be reimposed Friday on some 15 million people in the Indian city of Chennai and several neighbouring districts, state officials said, as coronavirus cases surge in the region… It will be in place until the end of June… Only shops selling essential items and restaurants will be allowed to remain open from early morning until 2:00 pm local time during the lockdown…In major cities such as New Delhi and Mumbai, reports of patients struggling to find hospital beds have triggered speculation about fresh lockdowns being re-introduced there.. In Delhi, mortuaries are overflowing with bodies, and cemetery and crematorium staff say they cannot keep up with the backlog of corpses”, “India now has he world’s fourth-highest number of infections after the United States, Brazil and Russia”.
2. Wikipedia: The Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is one of the nine known human herpesvirus types in the herpes family. Children who contract EBV exhibit few symptoms or may appear asymptomatic, but when EBV is contracted as an adolescent or adult, it may cause fatigue, fever, inflamed throat, and more. Post-infectious Chronic Fatigue Syndrome has also been associated with EBV infection. EBV has been implicated in several diseases, including four types of cancer and multiple sclerosis (infecting and damaging nerve cells in the brain and spinal chord).
“As a relatively complex virus, EBV is not fully understood. Laboratories around the world continue to study the virus and develop new ways to treat the disease it causes… Although under active research, an Epstein-Barr virus vaccine is not yet available. The development of an effective vaccine could prevent up to 200,000 cancers globally per year.”
“The term post-viral fatigue syndrome is used as an alternative name for CFS (Chronic Fatigue Syndrome) which occurs after viral infection. A recent review found EBV antibody activity to be higher in patients with CFS…. Viral infection is a significant risk factor for CFS, with one study finding 22% of people with Epstein-Barr virus have chronic fatigue six months later, and 9% having strictly defined CFS”.
Post-Ebola virus syndrome is a post-viral syndrome affecting those who have recovered from infection with Ebola. Symptoms include joint and muscle pain, eye problems, including blindness, various neurological problems, and other ailments. It is not known if the neurological symptoms seen in survivors are a direct result of the virus or, instead, triggered by the immune system’s response to the infection. It is known that Ebola can trigger a massive cytokine storm that can cause bleeding throughout the body, including the brain, which may explain various neurological symptoms that have been reported.
— to be continued…
anitaJune 16, 2020 at 3:25 pm #358738
Continued from yesterday:
Worldometer: a further update about Covid-19 in the second most populated country in the world, India: over 350 thousand cases, an increase of about 12 thousands since yesterday, almost 12 thousands death (I made a mistake in yesterday’s post, the death count was not 99 thousands, but 9.9 thousands).
reuters. com/ article/ us health coronavirus India ambulance: “New Delhi- the heat was already suffocating when Mohammad Aamir Khan woke up in his tiny, windowless room with only a sheer curtain for a door… Before the novel coronavirus brought its pandemic to New Delhi, Aamir was one of ten thousands of people making a living in the Indian capital as a taxi driver. But the work dried up during the nearly three-month lockdown to prevent the spread of the virus. With cases rising in India even before the government lifted the lockdown last week, a friend suggested perhaps the only business now booming in the country- driving a private ambulance….Now his days are spent transporting corpses from the hospital to cremation pyres and cemeteries.. Aamir wrestles with how much protective equipment to wear. He could wear a hazmat-like suit, but that isn’t very practical in New Delhi’s ferocious heat. ‘We will faint in half an hour if we wear the kit and work.’ he said. He and his fellow drivers are much more comfortable wearing a thin hospital gown. But there might be a price for their comfort: ‘We are always worried that we might catch the infection.’
Government-run ambulances are scarce in India. Most people resort to calling private ambulances, some little more than converted vans with mobile numbers written on the side… Unlike in many other countries badly hit by the virus, ambulance drivers and other vital health workers in India are poorly paid, have minimum training, no health insurance and long working hours.”
According to Wikipedia’s “Countries and regions by life expectancy at birth in 2018 (2019 report“, India ranks # 130 with an overall life expectancy (a combined figure for male and female) of 69.4 years. In comparison (the following numbers are all overall life expectancies), Hong Kong is #1 with 84.7 years, Japan is #2 with 84.5 years, Singapore is #3 with 83.8 years, Italy is #4 with 83.6 years.. Chile is #34 with 80 years.. the United States is #38 with 78.9 years… #175- #186, the lowest overall life expectancies, 59.4 years- 52.8 years, are all African countries with Central African Republic with the lowest life expectancy of 52.8 years.
It reads: “The figures reflect the quality of health care in the countries listed as well as other factors including ongoing wars, obesity, and HIV infections”- clearly viral infections and the quality of health care are huge parts affecting life expectancy.
— to be continued…
anitaJune 22, 2020 at 11:32 am #359246
Worldometer: in the last six days, the number of Covid-19 cases in India went up by about 80 thousands, and the number of deaths went up by almost 2,000.
Today about 8.5 thousand new cases and 172 new deaths have been reported by India, population close to 1,380 millions (1.38 billions) . In comparison, today about 10.3 thousand new cases and 126 new deaths have been reported in the US, population close to 331 millions.
msn. com/ en- us/ news/ us/ who warns of dangerous phase of pandemic as outbreaks widen (June 20): “‘Many people are understandably fed up with being at home,’ Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesusus, the director general of the W.H.O., said in a news conference.. ‘Countries are understandably eager to open up their societies and their economies. But the virus is still spreading fast.. in China, where officials had recently proclaimed that they had vanquished the virus- only to see it surge back in Beijing.. In India, which placed all 1.3 billion of its citizens under a lockdown- then moved to reopen even with its strained public health system near the breaking point- officials reported a record number of new cases this week. And the virus is now spreading rapidly in Pakistan and Bangladesh. Some countries where caseloads had appeared to taper- including Israel, Sweden and Costa Rica- are now watching them rise. Cases have continued to surge across much of the United States, with new single-day infection records reported in nine states.
“Some countries where caseloads had appeared to taper — including Israel, Sweden and Costa Rica — are now watching them rise… In Arizona and Texas, more people with the coronavirus are hospitalized now than at any previous point in the pandemic. In Utah, the percent of positive tests compared with total tests reached its highest levels yet this month. In Nevada, the percent of positive tests recently began increasing again after more than a month of sustained declines.
“In Arizona and Texas, more people with the coronavirus are hospitalized now than at any previous point in the pandemic. In Utah, the percent of positive tests compared with total tests reached the highest levels yet this month. In Nevada, the percent of positive tests recently began increasing again after more than a month of sustained declines”.
Worldometer: Sweden reported 1,481 new cases two days ago, June 18 (the last date available on the New Cases graph), which is the second highest number of new cases per day, the first being June 10 with 1,487 new cases. On June 17 102 new deaths were reported, the highest was 185 new deaths on April 21.
In Israel 230 new cases were reported today, 303 new cases on June 19, which is a recent spike following the lowest decline of new daily cases from May 9- May 26 ( 8 new cases per day up to31 new cases per day).
msn. com/ en- us/ news/ us/ Anthony fauci warns of anti science bias being a problem in us (June 19): “One of the problems we face in the United States is that unfortunately, there is a combination of an anti-science bias.. people.. just don’t believe science and they don’t believe authority,’ Fauci said…
“It’s amazing sometimes the denial there is. It’s the same thing that gets people who are anti-vaxxers, who don’t want people to get vaccinated, even though the data clearly indicate the safety of vaccines,’ Fauci added. ‘That’s really a problem.'”.
-To be continued (unfortunately!)
anitaJune 24, 2020 at 8:25 am #359403
Worldometer (June 24), global coronavirus cases reported is getting close to 10 millions and global deaths reported is getting close to half a million. More than 5 million coronavirus patients have reportedly recovered.
Close to 2.5 million of the global close to 10 million cases are reportedly in the U.S.A and close to 124 thousand deaths, roughly a quarter of the global coronavirus cases and a quarter of the global coronavirus deaths.
Brazil, in second place, has under half of the U.S. cases and deaths. Russia in third place reports just over half the cases in Brazil and less than fifth of the number of deaths in Brazil. India is in fourth place.
Yesterday, June 23, the following numbers of new cases were reported, here in descending order: 40,131 in Brazil, 36,015 in the U.S, 15,665 in India, and 7,425 in Russia.
msn. com/ en- us/ news/ us/ some public health officials are resigning amid threats during the Covid-19 pandemic (June 23): “There are more than 2.3 million reported Covid-19 cases throughout the United States.. There have been at least 120,393 virus-related deaths. Yet across the US, many people have taken issue with guidance from health officials- as the act of wearing a mask to protect others during a pandemic… What has typically been just pure public health advice coming from a trusted source in the community, the local health department, is being politicized and made to seem like the public health advice is something that is restricting people’s rights, their freedoms to move about…’Public health department officials and staff have been physically threatened and politically scapegoated.. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the most public medical face of the federal response to the coronavirus pandemic, has had personal security from law enforcement, including at his home, for a few months now after receiving threats… Since March, the team at LA County Health has been attacked via email, public postings, and letters. At least one health official has a sheriff escort in the community because of threats… officials find themselves having to enforce the guidelines around reopening states and giving out the best public health advice and guidance that they have, including about social distancing, wearing masks and hand hygiene. Some people don’t like it”.
msn. com/ en- us/ health/ health-news/ welcome to the whack a mole stage of coronavirus (June 24): “It’s a glimpse at what the new normal might look like- a perpetual game of whack-a-mole in which authorities race to contain the virus as it pops up in new places. ‘In the absence of a vaccine, the best scenario that we can hope for is that there’s a very low level of virus spread in the general population, and that if there are local hotspots and outbreaks, that the local health authorities can work fast enough to contain it and prevent the spread,’ said Dr. Thomas Kamradt, an immunologist and professor at the University Hospital at Friedrich-Schiller University in Jena, Germany.
The outbreak at the Toennies meat plant in Guetersloh sparked fear in Germany partly because it pushed the country’s reproduction rate way up. The obscure epidemiological concept became a household term, with front pages across Europe reporting ‘A huge spike in Germany’s R.’ According to Germany’s center for disease control, the Robert Koch Institute, the rate now stands at 2.76, which means that one infected person, is, on average, currently passing the virus on to 2.76 other people. Over the weekend, it went as high as 2.88.
The high reproduction number shows how easily the virus spreads when left unchecked. When it falls below 1, the epidemic is fading. When it’s higher than 1, it is spreading. If the rate stays above 1 for a long period of time, there could come a point when there are more sick people than hospitals can handle. That means some patients will end up missing out on critical care they need- for example because there aren’t enough ventilators- and the overall death toll is therefore much higher.
Chancellor Angela Merkel has repeatedly stressed that in order to defeat the virus, the number- known widely as Ro or just R- must stay below 1… But while the R number is important, it doesnt paint a complete picture. The rate in Germany jumped suddenly because 1,553 workers at the Toennies factory tested positive for the virus, even as the rest of the country saw very few infections. ‘R must always be seen in context.. If you have low infection numbers in total- in Germany it’s some hundreds per day- and some larger outbreaks, R can rise quite quickly, but this is not that problematic… It would be far worse if you’d have 50,000 daily cases and an estimated R of around 2-3’.
While the outbreak in the factory has been severe, authorities hope the virus has not been able to spread further… Many of those infected are migrant workers from Romania, Bulgaria and Poland who are working in cramped conditions and on precarious contracts, for low pay. German health authorities are now desperately trying to reach this previously invisible community- the district is hiring 150 translators to help.”
June 27, 2020 at 9:20 am #359744
- This reply was modified 7 months ago by anita.
Worldometer: 47,341 new daily coronavirus cases have been reported yesterday, June 26, in the U.S.- the highest number of new cases in a day since the pandemic began. It’s been two days in a row (June 25 and 26) of the highest numbers, higher than the previous record of 39,116 new daily cases on April 24.
msn. com/ en- us/ health/ medical/ rising infections in younger people fuel calfornia new coronavirus spike (Friday, June 26):
“As of Wednesday, 56% of people diagnosed with Covid-19 were 18 to 49 years old, though they account for only 43.5% of the state’s population.. people older than 65, who used to make up nearly a quarter of those testing positive for Covid-19, now account for fewer than 15% of positive coronavirus tests, roughly in line with their proportion of the population.
“The changes may be due in part to expanded testing. Early in the outbreak, it was nearly impossible to get a test for the coronavirus unless one was sick enough to be hospitalized. Because young people are less likely to get severely ill with Covid-19, they may not have been captured in testing numbers…
“In L.A County, 40% of coronavirus cases are occurring among those 18 to 40 years old. That matches the experience in Japan, where a study published by the U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention found that the people probably spreading the coronavirus in more than 60 clusters were mostly young adults, ages 20 to 39. Most did not show symptoms when they transmitted the virus, and almost none had a cough.
“Transmission probably happened at such places as restaurants, bars, workplaces, healthcare facilities, gyms and music events. Many clusters were associated with heavy breathing in proximity to others, such as people singing at karaoke parties, cheering at a concert, chatting in a bar or exercising at a bar.”
msn. com/ en- us/ news/ us/ how Arizona lost control of the epidemic (Friday, June 26):
“This week Arizona reported not just a record single- day increase in new cases.. but also record use of inpatient beds and ventilators for suspected and confirmed cases… In Southern states, some epidemiologists also are cautioning about what they are calling a ‘reverse summer effect,’ with warm weather- once thought to interrupt the spread of the virus- driving residents into indoor spaces with recycled air…
“The mean age of Arizonian killed by covid-19 fell from 78 on April 27 to 69 on June 14.. The average age of patients testing positive for the virus dropped from 51 on April 5 to 39 by mid-June… Arizona has three times as many positive tests among people age 20 to 44 as it does in any other age bracket, according to state data. The state’s cases began rising dramatically about May 25, 10 days after Ducey allowed the state’s stay-at-home order to expire.”
msn. com/ en- us/ news/ us/ coronavirus surge in south and west looks different from north (Saturday, June 27):
“The virus that ravaged Northeastern U.S. cities is surging through Southern and Western states. It’s different this time. Younger people are getting sick with Covid-19… Health officials are sounding alarms about a surge in cases racing not through nursing homes, but bars and house parties. Hospitals are filling with medically-vulnerable elderly- but also 20-somethings and patients in their 30s and 40s. Some took the end of stay-home orders as permission to live their lives again, unimpeded.
“Phoenix entrepreneur Jimmy Flores, 30, spent the night of June 6 at a nightclub with friends, sharing drinks. Two days later, he felt sick. The next week, he was on a hospital oxygen tube after testing positive for Covid-19. ‘I’m young, active, healthy person with no previous conditions,’ he said. ‘I didnt take it seriously for myself. I was not practicing the social- distancing guidelines. I didnt wear a mask. I thought I was invincible.’
“Mr. Flores said he went from not knowing anyone with Covid-19 to knowing 15 victims. After eight days’ hospitalization, he is recovering at home.
‘We’re still in the first wave, and that first wave is taking different shapes,’ Center for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield said in a Thursday briefing. The U.S. has improved its testing ability and seeing more cases in young people, who typically have better outcomes, he said. But younger people in Texas and Arizona are taking hospital beds and straining the health-care system, he said…
“Arizona’s Covid-19 hospitalizations since it reopened May 15 have grown from 789 to 2,110, according to state data Thursday. Nine of 10 hospital ICU beds were full this week, state data shows. In Texas nearly 6,000 tested positive for Covid-19 Thursday, versus just over 600 new diagnoses on Memorial Day, state data shows; hospitalizations rose to more than 4,700 from just over 1,500 in that period…
“Increased testing is likely responsible for part of the data shift toward younger people, epidemiologists said. Health officials and doctors are testing more mild and asymptomatic patients nationwide than in March and April, as the availability of tests has grown, they said. Another possible factor: The virus is spreading in some of the hottest states. People might be staying in the air-conditioned indoors ‘where you can’t physically distance’ said Dr. Joe K. Gerald, associate professor of public- health policy and management at University of Arizona. Phoenix temperatures hit 108 Thursday…
“The percentage of tests coming back positive is rising around America, which epidemiologists said indicates the disease is spreading. And the percentage of positive tests is now higher in the 18 to 49 age group than among older brackets, CDC data show- a departure from earlier patterns. Of Arizona’s more than 66,000 confirmed cases since the pandemic began, nearly 60% had been younger than 45 as of Friday.
“The Louisiana Department of Health last week announced an outbreak of more than 100 cases linked to a cluster of bars near Louisiana State University. The state is seeing a rise in cases among the 18 to 29 age group but not among those 65 and older, even as it is doing more testing in settings such as nursing homes, said Alex Billioux, assistant secretary of the state health department’s office of public health…
“Florida reported new daily cases rose from 1,222 on May 27 to 8,933 on Thursday with a median age of 34.
“Health experts said they had expected cases to increase as lockdown ended. In addition to increased testing, the numbers are likely due to changing behaviors, said Nadia Abuelezam, an infectious- disease epidemiologist at Boston College. Young people are likely being less cautious about social distancing or returning to work, she said, while more- vulnerable people- and hard-hit places such as nursing homes- might be taking more precautions…
“Because younger people are more likely to have better Covid-19 outcomes, the new surge in cases might not result in as many deaths as before. Still, ‘there’s a bit of a false narrative out there that because you’re young, you’re OK if you get infected,’ Dr. McDeavitt said. ‘We see people in their 20s and 30s in our ICUs gasping for air because they have Covid-19.’..
“‘I know many young people out there feel invincible,’ Gov Ducey said Thursday, urging citizens to stay home and practice social distancing when out, ‘but your parents and grandparents are not invincible.’… Texas surge comes after a phased state reopening beginning May 1. Many bar owners, angry they weren’t allowed to open immediately, as restaurants were, lobbied hard and staged a ‘soft opening’ May 15. Three days later, Gov. Abbott said bars could open that week. On the weekend of June 13, bars were bumping on Austin’s Sixth Street nightclub strip. People without masks crowded counters and bounced to DJs. Crowds spread across the street. In recent weeks, the Texas Alcohol and Beverage Commission began suspending liquor licenses of bars not following rules.”
msn. com/ en- us/ news/ us/ reopening reverses course in texas and florida as coronavirus cases spike (Saturday, June 27):
“Both states are backtracking amid a crisis rising hospitalizations and skyrocketing infection rates. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott ordered bars to close and restaurants to reduce occupancy… In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis ordered bars to close immediately because of ‘widespread noncompliance’ with rules regarding capacity and social distancing”.
My few thoughts:
1. People under the influence of alcohol in bars are not likely to keep social distancing rules, and they are likely to speak louder, laugh etc., which increases the transmission of the virus.
2. People coming together in enclosed indoor spaces are more likely to infect and get infected than people coming together in outdoor spaces.
3. People coming together in air conditioned enclosed spaces so to cool off from the summer heat increases infection. Maybe air conditioning itself as it circulates the air, facilitates infection as well.
4. The increase in Covid-19 infection in young people is due to young people having gone out to bars and other get together in enclosed spaces following re-opening of states. The virus has been spreading since re-opening in the younger generations because it is younger people who felt confident enough to go out and about. Older people and people with pre-existing conditions normally don’t go out much and at these times are well aware of how dangerous it is, so they are cautious. This is why the rate of infection in the older, vulnerable population didnt rise. I suppose older/ vulnerable people should stay removed from younger people who have been out and about since re-opening. We should all be more cautious about keeping social distance from younger people as well as older people.
5. Globally, according to Worldometer, 99% of active Covid-19 patients are in “mild condition” and 1% are in “Serious or critical” condition. It means that the virus although very infectious, still leads to a very low mortality rate (in people who’s health is not significantly compromised), because it is most often serious and severe symptoms that result in death, not mild conditions.
June 28, 2020 at 2:06 am #359819DonovanParticipant
- This reply was modified 7 months ago by anita.
You have tried to describe about term of Corona Virus and we know that people and countries are badly affected. So we have to collect positive data against this pandemic here.June 28, 2020 at 7:09 am #359833
Thank you for posting on my thread, and you are welcome to post again with what you referred to as “positive data against this pandemic here”.
anitaJune 30, 2020 at 2:01 pm #360115
Worldometer: almost 10.5 million Covid-19 cases reported world-wide, over 510.5 thousand Covid-19 deaths reported, and almost 4.3 million currently active Covid-19 cases reported globally, of which 99% experience mild symptoms and 1% experiences serious to severe symptoms.
Close to 2.7 million cases are reported in the U.S, close to 130 thousands deaths. Brazil is in second place with close to 1.4 million cases and close to 60 thousand deaths. Countries that do report percentages of mild symptoms vs serious to severe symptoms in active cases, report the 99% – 1% that I’ve seen most often since the beginning of the pandemic.
Belgium, Sweden and Australia report today a 100% (mild symptoms)- 0% (serious to severe symptoms), China reports a 98%- 2% ratio, Germany: 96% – 4%, and Canada: 93% – 7%.
msn. com/ en- us/ news/ technology/ no symptoms big problems scientists still puzzled by asymptomatic coronavirus cases (June 30): “The Center for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday that the number of Covid-19 cases in the U.S.- including those that are asymptomatic- may be 10 times higher than what has been reported, meaning the true case count could be closer to 23 million. ‘Our best estimate right now is that for every case that’s reported, there are 10 other infections,’ Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the CDC, said Thursday.
“A study published June 18 in the Journal Nature Medicine was the first to examine the immune responses in asymptomatic coronavirus patients. The research followed 37 asymptomatic people in China’s Wanzhou district and compared them to 37 people who had symptoms. Although it was a small study, the scientists found that the asymptomatic patients did develop antibodies, which are protective proteins the immune system produces in response to infections. But the researchers discovered that antibody levels among those people diminished within two to three months… the recent results suggest that the protection may not last long- particularly among those who are asymptomatic… There’s a glimmer of hope that an antibody response can at least decrease the chances that you’ll progress to a severe disease…
Dr. Daniel Kurtizkes.. said it’s not altogether surprising that asymptomatic patients would have more modest immune responses.. In CT scans of all the study participants, the researchers found signs of lung inflammation, known as pulmonary infiltrates, even in people who showed no symptoms. Signatures of inflammation were observed in 57% of the asymptomatic group, a ‘surprising’ find because it’s not common to conduct CT scans on people who aren’t exhibiting symptoms of a respiratory infection, Kurtizkes said.
In CT scans of all the study participants, the researchers found signs of lung inflammation, known as pulmonary infiltrates, even in people who showed no symptoms. Signatures of inflammation were observed in 57 percent of the asymptomatic group, a “surprising” find because it’s not common to conduct CT scans on people who aren’t exhibiting symptoms of a respiratory infection, Kuritzkes said… ‘It makes you wonder if they really were asymptomatic, because clearly they had some pneumonia,’ he said. It just goes to show that the absence of symptoms is not the absence of infection.'”.
What I understand from this article is that there is no clear distinction between asymptomatic people and people with very mild symptoms. A disease progression is a matter of a continuum, therefore, lungs can be infected and somewhat inflamed with no symptoms or with symptoms so mild, that they don’t get the person’s attention. I am guessing lots of people have somewhat inflamed lungs following infections with the flu, but symptoms are too mild to be noticed or none at all. Like the article noted, (and people not aware of symptoms don’t go to a doctor and don’t get CTs, so they don’t know that their lungs are inflamed).
Also, a person who has serious symptoms is more likely to produce a strong immune response and therefore stronger and more lasting antibodies than a person who has been infected but experienced mild symptoms or no symptoms at all.
anitaJuly 6, 2020 at 2:23 pm #360841
Worldometer: close to 12 millions global Covid-19 cases reported, over half a million global Covid-19 deaths reported.
92% of closed cases ended in recovery, and 8% in death.
99% of active cases are those of patients experiencing mild symptoms and 1% are those of patients experiencing serious or critical symptoms.
In the US, over 3 million cases reported, over 130 thousands deaths. 91% of the closed cases ended in recovery, and 9% in death. No information on the mild/ serious condition of active cases.
Before June 25, the number of new daily cases in the US was lower than 40 thousands. On June 25, for the first time, the number of daily new cases was over 40 thousands . Every day since June 25 (11 days so far) have been days with over 40 thousand new cases. There were over 50 thousands new cases on July 1, July 2, and July 3, and down to the 40 thousands new cases since then.
The highest number of deaths in the US was on April 21, over 2.7 thousand deaths that day. From April 7 to May 7, there were 19 days, each with over 2 thousand deaths per day. From June 10 to the present, there have been less than 1 thousand deaths per day, 251 deaths yesterday, July 5.
<div></div>July 8, 2020 at 11:24 am #361043
Worldometer: 12 million global cases, 548 thousand global deaths; over 3 millions US cases, over 134 thousand US deaths.
msn. com/ en-us/ news/ us/ coronavirus updates us nears 3m cases (July 8): “Hospitalizations continued to rise and ICU beds were quickly filling as the nation reaches the brink of 3 million coronavirus cases.. The stunning milestone will hit less than six months after the first confirmed case was reported January 21, in Everett, Washington. The virus has killed more than 130,000 Americans… In Florida, seeing an ominous surge in cases, at least 56 hospital intensive care units have reached capacity.”
According to Worldometer, in the U.S., yesterday, July 7, there were 55.4 thousands new cases and 993 new deaths, an increase from 378 deaths of the day before (but significantly less than the 2,749 highest daily death count back in April 21).
There is an article on the Johns Hopkin website, https: // coronavirus. jhu. edu/ map. html, from July 6, titled “Covid-19 cases are rising, but deaths are falling. What’s going on?”, by Dylan Scott:
“Cases are rising, but the country is seeing its lowest death counts since the pandemic first exploded… When laypeople observe those contradictory trends, they might naturally have a follow-up question: if deaths are not increasing along with cases, then why can’t we keep reopening? .. If we could reopen the economy without the loss of life we saw in April and May, then why shouldn’t we?
“I posed that very question to more than a dozen public health experts. All of them cautioned.. this many cases mean many more deaths are probably in our future. And even if deaths don’t increase to the same levels seen in April and May, there are still some very serious possible health consequences if you contract Covid-19…
“The sinking death rates reflect the sate of the pandemic a month or more ago, experts say, when the original hot spots had been contained and other states had only just begun to open up restaurants and other businesses. That means it could still be another few weeks before we really start to see the consequences, in lives lost, of the recent spikes in cases. And in the meantime, the virus is continuing to spread. By the time the death numbers show the crisis is here, it will already be too late…
“Even if the death rates stay low in the near term, that doesn’t mean the risk of Covid-19 has evaporated… Young people, who account for a bigger share of the recent cases, aren’t at nearly as high a risk of dying from the virus, but.. early research.. suggests that people infected with the coronavirus experience lung damage and other long-term complications that could lead to health problems down the road, even if they don’t experience particularly bad symptoms during their illness…
“Experts warned months ago that if states were too quick to relax their social distancing policies, without the necessary capacity for more testing or contact tracing, new outbreaks would flare up and be difficult to contain. That’s exactly what happened- and now states are scrambling to reimpose some restrictions…
“The contradiction between these two curves- case numbers sloping upward, death counts downward- is the primary reason some people are agitating to accelerate, not slow down, reopening in the face of these new coronavirus spikes. The most important thing to understand is that this is actually to be expected. There is a long lag- as long as six weeks, experts told me- between when a person gets infected and when their death would be reported in the official tally… ‘Today’s cases represent infections that probably happened a week or two ago. Today’s deaths represent cases that were diagnosed possibly up to a month ago, so infections that were up to six weeks ago or more… Some people do get infected and die quickly, but the majority of people who die, it takes a while,’ Murray continued,. ‘It’s not a matter of one-week lag between cases and deaths. We expect something more on the order of a four-, five-, six-week lag’…
“‘Hospitalizations and deaths are both lagging indicators, because it takes time to progress through the course of illness,’ Caitlin Rivers at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security told me late last week. ‘The recent surge started around two weeks ago, so it’s too soon to be confident that we won’t see an uptick in hospitalizations and deaths.’
“The national numbers can also obscure local trends. According to the Covid Tracking Project, hospitalizations are spiking in the South and West, but at the same time, they are dropping precipitously in the Northeast, the initial epicenter of the US outbreak.
“There are some reasons to be optimistic we will not see deaths accelerate to the same extent that cases are. For one, clinicians have identified treatments like remdesivir and dexamethasone that, respectively, appear to reduce people’s time in the hospital and their risk of dying if they are put on a ventilator.
“The new infections are also, for now, skewing more toward younger people, who are at a much lower risk of dying of Covid-19 compared to older people… younger people can die of Covid-19. About 3,000 people under the age of 45 have died from the coronavirus, according to the CDC’s statistics.. That is a small percentage of the 130,000 and counting overall Covid-19 deaths in the US. But it does happen. Moreover, younger people can also develop serious enough symptoms that they end up having to be hospitalized with the disease. Again, their risk is meaningfully lower than that of older people, but that doesnt mean it’s zero…
“Illness is not a zero-sum game. A recent study published in Nature found that even asymptomatic Covid-19 patients showed abnormal lung scans.. some people who recover from Covid-19 still report health problems for weeks after their initial sickness. Potential long-term issues include lung scarring, blood clotting and stroke, heart damage, and cognitive challenges. In short, surviving Covid-19, even with relatively mild symptoms, does not mean a person simply reverts to normal. This is a new disease, and we are still learning the full extent of its effects on the human body…
“One response to the above set of facts might be: ‘Well, we should just isolate the old and the sick, while the rest of us go on with our lives.’ That might sound good in theory (if you’re not older or immunocompromised yourself), but it is much more difficult in practice. ‘The fact is that we live in communities that are all mixed up with each other… ‘ .. The people who work in nursing homes, after all, are living out in the community where Covid-19 is spreading. And, because they are younger, they may not show symptoms while they are going to work and potentially exposing those patients… the best recourse is trying to contain community spread, which keeps the overall case and death counts lower.. and prevents the health care system from being overwhelmed…
“Arizona, Florida, and Texas still have 20 to 30 percent of their ICU and hospitals beds available.. ‘Hospital capacity is another example of how the lags created by Covid-19 can lull us to a false sense of security until a crisis presents itself and suddenly it’s too late. Because it can take up to two weeks between infection and hospitalization, we are only now beginning to see the impact of these recent spikes. And to be clear, hospitalizations are on the rise across the new hot spots. The number of people currently hospitalized with Covid-19 in Texas is up from less than 1,800 on June 1 to nearly 8,000 on July 4. Hospitalizations in Arizona have nearly tripled since the beginning of June up to more than 3,100 today…
“And, on top of Covid-19, these health systems will continue to have the usual flow of emergency from heart attacks, strokes, accidents, etc. That’s when experts start to worry people will die who wouldn’t otherwise have…
“Lockdowns are extraordinarily burdensome. Tens of millions of Americans have lost their jobs. Drug overdoses have spiked. There has been a worrying increase in heart-related deaths, which indicates people who otherwise would have sought medical treatment do not did not do so during the worst of the outbreak this spring…
“To date, most states have opened up bars again and kept schools closed.. One of the most thorough studies so far on how lockdowns affected Covid-19’s spread found that closing restaurants and bars had a meaningful effect on the virus but closing schools did not…
“While the current divergence between case and death counts can be confusing, the experts agree that Covid-19 still poses a significant risk to Americans.. And we need our governments, from Washington to the state capitals, to get smarter about reopening. It will require collective action to stave off the coronavirus for good. Other countries have done it. But we have to act now before we find out it’s already too late”.
July 9, 2020 at 11:01 am #361110
- This reply was modified 6 months, 2 weeks ago by anita.
Wordometer: over 12 million global cases, over half a million global deaths (almost 554 thousands); over 3 million US cases, over 135 thousand US deaths, almost 62 thousand new cases in the US yesterday alone (July 8), which is the highest number of new cases per day in the US since the beginning of the pandemic.
On July 7 there were 993 US deaths, and 890 deaths yesterday, July 8. Each of these numbers is more than double the number of daily deaths on July 4, July 5 and July 6.
The recent increase of daily new cases in the US started about June 16, and the recent increase of daily deaths started July 7, a lag of 3 weeks. According to the article in my previous post, “There is a long lag- as long as six weeks.. between when a person gets infected and when their death would be reported in the official tally” (https: // coronavirus. jhu. edu/ map. html)
My note: clearly, when there is a significant increase in hospitalizations, as is the recent case in the US, there will be an increase in deaths. It is possible that the increase of deaths in the couple of months to follow will not be as steep as the increase in April-May, because more younger people than older people are hospitalized now than four months ago, and they are significantly more likely to survive, plus the medical care for COvid-19 patients in the US has improved.
Back to the Johns Hopkins University website (jhu, mentioned above), an article from June 25, titled: “As Covid-19 cases peak, a virus once again takes advantage of human instinct”, reads:
“The natural response to a disaster is to at first believe that it is not happening. The Covid-19 pandemic, we are learning, is a disaster playing out in slow motion- when every moment is a little bit worse than one would expect… We love denial’… Rivers said what frustrates her is the sense of resignation about the current state of affairs- to ‘explain why it can’t be helped and that this is just the way that things are destined to unfold, when the fact is there’s a lot that we could do.’ ‘There are many other countries that have gained control of their outbreak and they are in a much better place than we are,’ she noted… The solutions are the same simple ones public health experts have recommended from the beginning: further ramping up the availability and speed of testing, so patients know when they are infected. Isolating people when they are sick so they don’t infect others. Avoiding crowds and close contact with other people. Washing hands frequently. And, most experts now agree that face masks reduce transmission, helping to keep the virus in check… Until there is an effective vaccine, we need to use the measures we have- masks, some distancing, and reasonable steps to reduce infection- to try to keep the virus in check… it’s all we’ve got right now.”
My note: denial and resignation/ giving up are two reactions to fear: denying that there is danger and giving up trying to lessen the danger.
Denying the danger of Covid-19 is what president trump has done from the beginning. He now believes that the problem is not the virus, but the testing for the virus. No testing= no virus/ no problem, he figures. He arranged for a political rally not long ago, for thousands of his fans to come together, sitting close to each other, in an indoor setting, no masks.
He always had the inclination to fire/ get rid of any person who states a truth he wants to deny, so he has been keeping Fauci away from the public. I wouldn’t judge trump for his need to deny reality except that he is the president of the United States of America. He should be able to manage his fear better and provide effective leadership, something he hasn’t done yet, and is showing no signs of doing. I better restate this: a person who is unable to manage his/ her fear and provide effective leadership should not have been chosen for the role of President of the United States of America.
State governors who denied the problem govern states in spiking cases, such as Texas, Arizona and Florida.
I met a neighbor yesterday. I told him:” this is the first time since the pandemic that I see you!”. His response was: “What pandemic?” and he added, “this is bu****”. So no pandemic is happening, according to my neighbor. Thing is, my neighbor is living in a secluded area, outside the city limit, alone in a big house. He is not on TV, speaking to millions of people who see him, mask-less. But trump, he is in a very visible position, a position of power. What a shame.
Giving up is another reaction to fear- doing nothing to lessen the danger: not keeping social distancing, not wearing masks, etc. Giving up on trying involves less anxiety/ it reduces fear. Problem is, it reduces the subjective experience of fear, but it increases the real and present danger, which is the spread of the virus.
Each one of us needs to manage our fear, to not deny it and to not give up our efforts to lessen the real and present danger. Living with fear is the greatest human challenge, let’s do our best with this challenge.
anitaJuly 10, 2020 at 12:02 pm #361300
Worldometer: A day later, July 10, still over 12 million global cases, over half a million global deaths; over 3 million US cases, over 135 thousand US deaths, over 61 thousand new cases yesterday (second highest number in the whole pandemic, highest being the day before, July 8), 960 deaths on July 9 (an increase of 70 deaths from the day before).
Brazil reports very roughly half the cases and half the deaths of the U.S. with 1,199 deaths yesterday, July 9, 239 more deaths than recorded yesterday in the U.S. There have been 13 days in Brazil with higher than 1,200 deaths per day, starting June 2.
India reports very roughly half the cases of Brazil and less than a third of the deaths in Brazil, having more new cases yesterday, July 9, than at any other day during the whole pandemic, but the death count has been quite stable for a while.
msn. com/ en-us/ health/ medical/ the us recorded its highest ever number of daily covid infections with more than 65000 in a day (July 10): “The number of new coronavirus infections recorded in the US reached 65,551 on Thursday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University” (different from 61,067 reported by Worldometer for Thursday, July 9, second highest to the highest of 61,848 on Wednesday, July 8).
“The increase is being driven by infections spiking in states in the South and West, with Texas and Florida among those most severely affected… The southern and western states currently worst affected by the pandemic were among the first to lift restrictions to curb the spread of the disease. Since then, several have been forced to reintroduce measures including shuttering businesses and mandating the wearing of masks as infections spike. President Donald Trump has asserted that the number of infections being recorded in the US is the result of the increasing number of people being tested. The president’s own public health officials say this is false, and that the increasing percentage of people being tested (positive for the virus) shows that the infection is spreading in the real world, not decreasing. ‘There is no question that the more testing you get, the more you will uncover- but .. the percent positivists are going up,’ Assistant Health Secretary Brett Giroir told Congress last week.”
anitaJuly 11, 2020 at 1:19 pm #361427
Worldometer: getting closer to 14 million global cases and 600 thousand global deaths; over 3.3 million cases in the US, over 137 thousand US deaths, almost 72 thousand new cases yesterday, July 10, the highest number of daily new cases since the beginning of the pandemic by far, 849 deaths yesterday, he fourth day of increased deaths in since the recent surge of infections, but way less than the daily number of deaths during the April-May height of infections.
msn. com/ en- us/ news/ us/ the cdc predicts deaths will soar in these 12 states: “‘This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that there will likely be between 140,000 and 160,000 total reported Covid-19 deaths by August 1st,’ reports the agency”. Given that the current number of US Covid-19 deaths is over 137 thousands, it makes sense that there will be 3 to 23 thousands more deaths in the next three weeks.
coronavirus. jhu. edu/ data/ new cases: “USA: The first case of Covid-19 in US was reported 170 days ago on 1/21/2020” (January 21). The following countries are also countries whose new daily cases are increasing. This is when these countries reported their first Covid-19 cases on the following dates: Mexico Feb 27, India Feb 29, Brazil Feb 25, South Africa March 4, Columbia March 5.
A few of the countries who flattened their curves (no increase in number of daily new cases for a long while): China, Singapore, South Korea, Italy, Spain, Germany, France, UK, Belgium, Switzerland, Ireland, Denmark, and Canada.
msn. com/ en- us/ health/ medical/ how coronavirus affects the entire body:
“Coronavirus damages not only the lungs, but the kidneys, liver, heart, brain and nervous system, skin and gastrointestinal tract, doctors said Friday in a review of reports about Covid-19 patients… Their comprehensive picture shows the coronavirus attacks every major system in the human body, directly damaging organs and causing blood to clot, the heart to lose its healthy rhythm, the kidneys to shed blood and protein and the skin to erupt in rashes. It causes headaches, dizziness, muscle aches, stomach pain and other symptoms along with classic respiratory symptoms like coughing and fever.
‘Physicians need to think of Covid-19 as a multisystem disease,’ said Dr. Aakriti Gupta.. ‘There’s a lot of news about clotting but it’s also important to understand that a substantial proportion of these patients suffer kidney, heart, and brain damage, and physicians need to treat those conditions along with the respiratory disease.’
Much of the damage wrought by the virus appears to come because of its affinity for a receptor- a kind of molecular doorway into cells- called ACE2. Cells lining the blood vessels, in the kidneys, the liver ducts, the pancreas, in the intestinal tract and lining the respiratory tract all are covered with ACE2 receptors, which the virus can use to grapple and infect cells, the Columbia team wrot3e in their review published in the journal Nature Medicine. ‘These findings suggest that multiple-organ injury may occur at least in part due to direct viral tissue damage,’ the team wrote.
Coronavirus infection also activates the immune system. Part of that response includes the production of inflammatory proteins called cytokines. This inflammation can damage cells and organs and the so-called cytokine storm is one the causes of severe symptoms.
‘The virus is unusual and it’s hard not to take a step back and not be impressed by how many manifestations it has on the human body,’ Dr. Mahesh Madhavan, another cardiology fellow who worked on the review, said in a statement.
Blood clotting effects appear to be caused by several different mechanisms: direct damage of the cells lining the blood vessels and interferences with the various clotting mechanisms in the blood itself. Low blood oxygen caused by pneumonia can make the blood more likely to clot, the researchers said. Those clots can cause strokes and heart attacks or can lodge in the lungs or legs. They clog the kidneys and interfere with dialysis treatments needed for the sickest patients.
Damage to the pancreas can worsen diabetes, and patients with diabetes have been shown to be at the highest risk of severe illness and death from coronavirus. The virus can directly damage the brain, but some of the neurological effects likely come from the treatment. ‘Covid-19 patients can be intubated for two to three weeks; a quarter require ventilators for 30 or more days,’ Gupta said. ‘These are very prolonged intubations, and patients need a lot of sedation. ‘ICU delirium’ was a well-known condition before Covid, and the hallucinations may be less an effect of the virus and more an effect of the prolonged sedation.'”.
anitaJuly 14, 2020 at 11:53 am #361686
Worldometer, three days following my most recent post: global cases still approaching 14 millions and global deaths approaching 600 thousands. Globally, 99% of active cases are reported to be mild and 1% reported as serious or critical.
In the US, there are almost 3.5 million cases and over 138 thousands deaths. Almost 65.5 thousands new cases were reported yesterday, July 13, the second highest number of daily cases since the beginning of the pandemic. On the same day, 465 deaths have been reported, which is less than half of the 993 deaths reported six days ago, July 7, and significantly less than on July 8, 9, 10 and 11.
Every day, from March 27 to June 6, the daily number of deaths reported in the US was higher than yesterday’s number of 465 deaths. From March 31- April 6 the daily number of deaths was higher than 1,000. April 7 was the first day of over 2,000 deaths per day, and overall there were about 18 days of over 2,000 deaths per day (2,749 was the highest, on April 21).
June 9 was the last day the number was 1,000 or over. June 10 and onward, there were less than a thousand deaths per day, and July 7 the number was the closest to a thousand (993).
According to experts (see my July 8 post), “it’s not a matter of one-week lag between cases and deaths. We expect something more on the order of a four, five, six week lag”. The daily number of cases recent spike in the US started about June 23, the highest number of cases happened July 10. In six weeks, we should see the death numbers reflecting the July 10 highest number of cases: will it be as high as it was March 31- April 6 (more than a thousand per day)? Will it be more than 2 thousands per day like it was in 18 days or so from April 7 to May 7?
anitaJuly 14, 2020 at 12:16 pm #361690patricaParticipant
so informative ..