Dear Reader:

Updated numbers: yesterday there were 236,921 cases of infection, today: 271,675; yesterday there were 9,829 total deaths, today: 11,299, yesterday there were 86,675 recovered cases, today: 90,618.

Yesterday there 41,036 cases of infection in Italy and 3,405 deaths; today 47,021 cases and 4,032 deaths

The virus responsible for the current pandemic is Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, aconym: SARS-Cov-2 This is what Wikipedia says about it: “SARS-CoV-2 belongs to the broad family of viruses known as coronaviruses. It is a positive-sense single stranded RNA virus. Other coronaviruses are capable of causing illnesses ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)….

It is the seventh known coronavirus to  infect people, after 229E, NL63, OC43, HKU1, MERS-CoV, and the original SARS-CoV.”

The significance of it being an RNA virus vs a DNA virus, is this: “RNA viruses generally have very high mutation rates compared to DNA viruses” (Wiki, on RNA viruses).

Back to the wiki entry on the virus: “Based upon the low variability exhibited among known SARS-Cov-2 genomic sequences, the strain is thought to have been detected by health authorities within weeks of its emergence among human population in late 2019”, the earliest case of infection thought to have been on Nov 17, 2019 in China, spread to more than 100 countries, then, on Jan 11, 2020 WHO designated it as a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern”, and on March 11, 2020, WHO declared it a pandemic.

“The basic reproduction number of the virus has been estimated to be between 1.4 and 3.9. This means that each infection from the virus is expected to result in 1.4 to 3.9 new infections when no members of the community are immune and no preventative measures are taken”.

Regarding “basic reproduction number”, wikipedia: “In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number of an infection can be thought of as the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection..(where there is) absence of ‘any deliberate intervention in disease transmission”.

My comment, best of my understanding at this point: the thing about viruses, and RNA viruses more than DNA viruses, is that they don’t stay the same, they keep mutating. One virus shows up in one form, infects an animal let’s say, and mutates/ changes, infect another,  mutates further, crosses species to a human, mutates some more, infects another human, mutates even more. Scientists cannot predict mutations. So even though the current SARS-Cov2 has killed way less people than the flue did, in a comparable period of time, no  one can tell if the SARS-Cov2 will become much more deadly as it continues to infect more and more people and mutate each time. This is why it is so important to isolate people/ social distance, so to severely stop the spread of infection and the mutation of the virus that accompanies such a spread.

Regarding the flu, there is a vaccine that cover a lot of the cases, none exists for the current disease; there are viral treatments approved for the flu, none for the current. But viruses responsible for the flu, they too are RNA viruses that keep mutating, and once in a while there are outbreaks of the flu, so all viral infections have to be monitored and followed at all times by heath authorities in every country and internationally.

More later.

anita

Dear Reader:

The virus that is causing the current pandemic is SARS-Cov-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2). SARS is not a new occurrence, it didn’t appear for the first time in Dec 2019. It already happened in November 2003. There was an outbreak that soon earned the title epidemic (not a pandemic) 17 years ago, an epidemic that was caused by the virus SARS-Cov  (SARS Coronavirus).

Let’s look at what happened then, Wikipedia (bold face feature is added by me): “Between November 2002 and July 2003, an outbreak of SARS in Southern China caused an eventual 8,098 cases resulting in 774 deaths  in 17 countries .. 9.6% fatality rate  with the majority of cases in mainland China and Hong Kong… No cases of SARS have been reported worldwide since 2004. However, the related virus SARS-Cov-2 is the cause of the ongoing 2019-20 coronavirus pandemic”..

“at the end of the epidemic in June 2003, the incidence was 8,422 cases with a case fatality rate of 11% … The viral outbreak can be genetically traces to a colony of cave-dwelling horseshoe bats in China’s Yunnan province. The SARS epidemic appears to have started in Guangdong Province, China, in November 2002 where the first case was reported that same month… Despite taking some action to control it, Chinese government officials did not inform the World Health Organization of the outbreak until February 2003… China has since officially apologized for early slowness in dealing with the SARS epidemic…By the time the WHO took action, over 500 deaths an and an additional 2,000 cases had already occurred worldwide.”

* My question: Following the Chinese governemnt apology regarding being three months late to report the outbreak to WHO, did the Chinese governemnt report the current outbreak turned pandemic to WHO immediately???

Back to wiki: “In late February 2003, Italian doctor Carlo Urbani was called into The French Hospital of Hanoi to look at Johnny Chen, an American businessman who had fallen ill with what doctors thought was a bad case of influenza. Urbani realized that Chen’s ailment was probably a new and highly contagious disease. He immediately notified the WHO. He also persuaded the Vietnamese Health Ministry to begin isolating patients and screening travelers, thus slowing the early pace of the epidemic. He subsequently contracted the disease himself, and died in March 2003.”

“The CDC and Canada’s National Microbiology Laboratory identified the SARS genome in April 2003… In late may 2003, studies were conducted.. The results found that the SARS coronavirus could  be isolated from masked palm civets.. and more than 10,000 masked palm civets were killed in Guangdong province. The virus was also later found in racoon dogs, ferret badgers, and domestic cats. In 2005, two studies identified a number of SARS- like coronaviruses in Chinese bats. Phylogenic analysis of these viruses indicated a high probability that SARS coronavirus originated in bats and spread to humans either directly or through animals held in Chinese markets.. the disease had jumped across species… In December 2017.. researchers  reported .. that they had found a remote cave in Yunnan province, which is home to the horseshoe bats that carry a strain of a particular virus known as a coronavirus.. that triggered the global outbreak of SARS in 2002′ The research was performed by Shi Zheng-Li, Cui Jie and coworkers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, China and published in PLOS Pathogens. The authors are quoted as stating that ‘another deadly outbreak of SARS could emerge at any time. As they point out, the cave where they discovered their strain is only a kilometer from the nearest village.”

“The World Health Organization declared severe acute respiratory syndrome contained on 5 July 2003. In the following years, four SARS cases were reported in China between December 2003 and January 2004“.

Regarding Treatment: “As SARS is a viral disease, antibiotics do not have direct effect, but may be used against bacterial secondary infection… Antiviral medications are used as well as high doses of steroids to reduce swelling in the lungs. People with SARS must be isolated.. As of 2020, there is no cure or protective vaccine for SARS that has been shown to be both safe and effective in humans. According to research papers published in 2005 and 2006, the identification and development of novel vaccines and medicines to treat SARS is a priority for governments and public health agencies around the world. In early 2004, an early clinical trial on volunteers was planned”.

* My questions:

1.What happened to that clinical trial, what happened to that high priority of looking for a vaccine in the last 15 years???

2. If a vaccine for the a SARS virus wasn’t found in 15 years, can one be found any time soon for SARS viruses?

Will the fact that the current outbreak is a pandemic affecting the developed world greatly (vs the original outbreak that was an epidemic that didn’t affect the developed world greatly) lead to way greater resources being urgently invested into finding a vaccine and viral treatments for the SARS viruses (similar to the vaccine and viral treatments that were found for the influenza viruses and which are currently in use)?

anita

* Regarding my first post today: unfortunately, seems that Italy is not doing better at all. The numbers were not updated earlier this morning when I checked the website (worldometers). Now updated,  there has been an increase in cases and in deaths today: 53,578,4,825 total cases and 4,825 total deaths today, which is up from 47,021 total cases  and 4,032 total deaths when I checked yesterday.

Also, global cases 297,426, deaths 12,775 (up from 286,402 and 11,885 from this morning).

The better numbers are still better: 88% of patients that were infected with the virus and tested positive for the virus have recovered, and 96% of patients still suffering from the virus show mild symptoms/ are in mild condition.

—I am going to be more cautious regarding the numbers, I understand now that no number in the data table in the website doesn’t mean zero, but it may very well mean that a number was not yet entered into the data table.

anita