Dear Reader:

The basic reproduction number (Ro) of an infection is basically how many (unvaccinated) people are likely to get infected by one infected individual. According to Wikipedia’s numbers in their entry on the topic, the Ro of SARS-Cov-2 (the COVID-19 virus)  is between 1.4 and 3.9 (1.4-3.9), meaning each person infected with the COVID-19 is likely to infect between 1.4 to 3.9 people, rounded it would be each two infected people proceeding to infect  3, 4, 5, 6, 7 or 8  people (depending on the part of the world, I figure).

Let’s compare this to the Ro of other diseases caused by viruses from least to most: MERS: 0.3-0.8, Influenza (2009 pandemic strain, aka swine flu): 1.4-1.6, Influenza (seasonal stains): 1.9-2.1, Influenza (1918 pandemic strain aka The Spanish Flu): 1.4-2.8, Ebola (2014 Ebola outbreak): 1.5-2.5, COVID-19: 1.4-3.9, SARS (early 2000s): 2-5, AIDS: 2-5, Smallpox: 3.5-6, Mumps: 4-7, Rubella: 5-7, Polio: 5-7, Measles: 12-18.

As you can see, the COVID-19 is very contagious, although not as contagious as some. Thing is, there are vaccines for measles, the most contagious of all viral diseases, as well as for polio, rubella, mumps, smallpox, and influenza, but none for AIDS, Ebola,  SARS (caused by the coronavirus, SARS-Cov), MERS (caused by the coronavirus MERS-Cov ), or for COVID-19 (caused by the coronavirus, SARS-Cov-2).

The current danger SARS-Cov-2, the COVID-19 virus,  to our global population, is a combination of:

1.  It very contagious (Ro).

2. Too many people are currently infected, the first outbreak has grown into a series of global outbreaks, turned epidemics, turned into a global pandemic, meaning, as an example (I am guessing the numbers that follow for the purpose of giving this example): an Ro of 1 meant that 1000 people were infected during the first outbreak, 20,000 during the series of epidemic and 200,000 during the pandemic).

3. There is no vaccine for the disease.

4. There is no viral treatment for the disease.

5. The health care system in every country at best can take care of pre-COVID-19 patients suffering from all the existing diseases prior to COVID-19, but none is equipped (personnel, equipment, etc.) to take care of the additional COVID-19 patients that experience a severe form of the disease. Even though 95% of currently infected patients suffer a mild form of the disease and only 5% of  patients suffer severely, requiring hospitalization- that 5% translates to a huge number of patients needing hospitalization, because of the large numbers (#2, above).

anita

Dear Reader:

I forgot #6, an big item, so here is a re-writing of #1-5, plus the sixth item-

The current danger that SARS-Cov-2 poses to our global population is a result of the following:

1. The virus is very contagious. The Ro number: 1.4-3.9 (wikipedia), WHO estimated it to be 1.4-2.5 on Jan 23, a preliminary and later studies estimated it to be 1.5-3.5, and  3.6-4 (Worldometers.info/coronavirus).

2. Too many people are currently infected (the current number of total global coronavirus cases is 422,566).

3. There is no vaccine for the COVID-19.

4. There is no anti-viral treatment for the COVID-19.

5. The health system in every country is not prepared for a massive inflow of COVID-19  patients needing hospitalization (to be added to patients already there as a result of other diseases and injuries, etc.

6. The greater the numbers of people infected/ the greater the number of hosts, the more the virus mutates, and the greater the chance that a more aggressive viruses results from the repeated mutations, such that are more contagious coronavirus (a bigger Ro), and/ or a coronavirus that cause more severe symptoms/ a more severe form of the disease, and more deaths.

anita

Dear Brandy:

I am glad you posted in my thread! I am looking forward to read it thoroughly first thing tomorrow morning, in about 11 hours from now.

anita

Dear Brandy:

First this morning I will reply to your posts here without looking anything up, using my words  based on what I remember reading and understanding yesterday and before:

Regarding an antibody test for the COVID-19 virus aka SARS-Cov-2: similar to a people being infected with any of the viruses causing the common cold (one of which is a coronavirus), the body makes antibodies for it, but those antibodies don’t work long term and the person gets a common cold again, a few months or a year later. The reason is that the common cold viruses mutate faster than other viruses, so in a matter of a few months, the common cold viruses around are too different from what they were at the time the antibodies were created. This is why scientists didn’t succeed in creating a vaccine for the common cold.

So, let’s say you take an antibody test and you have the antibodies for the virus, that doesn’t mean that you are immune to the virus a month or so in the future.

Similarly, the test that detects the virus itself, that doesn’t mean a person tested negative for the virus will not be infected with it a moment later, or an hour later.

Because an outbreak of an infectious disease in one location, turned a series of epidemics in more and more locations around the world, turned pandemic is about numbers, it is crucial that hospitals anywhere and everywhere in the world notify the WHO (and whatever institutions are affiliated with WHO) of each and every infectious disease they treat in their hospital, updating an international online database.

It is believed that the first case of COVID-19 took place in Nov 17, 2019 in Wuhan, China- I am guessing the doctors thought it was the flu at the time, but retroactively, scientists figure it was probably COVID-19. The travel ban from China, obviously should have been put into place way earlier than it was. Failures to isolate infected people early on in China and failure to ban travel from China led to this pandemic. It is a matter of numbers, and the number should have been stopped from growing As Soon As Possible.

In addition, the last SARS originated in China, caused by the SARS-Coronavirus in 2002, causing epidemics in 17 countries, I think, maybe more. China failed to notify the world early, apologized for it, but failed to regulate the bat/ wildlife food markets knowing that the virus responsible for the series of epidemics originated in bats in 2002, crossing species to humans. I figure WHO and health authorities in all countries in the world failed to pressure China to stop this dangerous bat/wildlife unregulated food market ongoing practice in China, and anywhere else where it is practiced.

I agree with you: it is very likely that many people other than the one man who flew from China to the WA, USA on Jan 15, brought the virus with them before, during and after that Jan 15 flight, people with mild symptoms or no symptoms at all.

Regarding how the virus relates to Influenza aka the flu- I will read about it more later, but what I know is that there is a vaccine for the flu. The viruses that cause the flu are not coronaviruses. They mutate (all viruses mutate each time they replicate themselves/multiply inside a host), but not as quickly as coronaviruses. Therefore it was possible to come up with a vaccine. I am assuming (read nothing about it) that the flu vaccine gets updated over time, to fit newer and newer strains of the flu viruses.

One reason the flu kills so many people is that many don’t get vaccinated (thanks in part to the antivaxers). This pandemic should be a wake up call to everyone to get vaccinated for every viral disease that can possibly infect us, including any and all airborne viruses. In addition to getting vaccinated, washing hands, cleaning surfaces etc.. are necessary preventative measures.

I am glad you fully recovered from the flu (or the COVID-19) symptoms in mid Jan. You wrote: “If I have antibodies.. then shouldn’t I be back at work helping the economy? And shouldn’t everyone else who has the antibodies be doing the same, and eating out at restaurants, and out purchasing from retailers…?”- in theory it reads right, problem is that your antibodies may not work for the newer strains of the virus.

Viruses are about numbers: once they enter a host they multiply quickly, and every time their genetic material gets replicated, mutations happen. They spread to new hosts, and each and every new host is a new opportunity for more mutations, and before you know it, there is a variety of virus strains of the earlier virus form. It is called the evolution of a virus.

The measles virus is the most contagious by far of all  viruses, yet the vaccine for it works so well. I am guessing the measles virus’s evolution is slow, that is, it doesn’t mutate fast.

A point of interest to me: the common cold virus mutates a whole lot and quickly, but the common cold is a mild form of respiratory disease. The current COVID-19 virus causes mild symptoms in 95% of people infected, and this percentage has stayed the same for a long time. Maybe it will not mutate and form a more aggressive virus strain (which will cause severe symptoms), just like the common cold coronavirus didn’t evolve into a more aggressive form. But it may evolve into more contagious forms (a higher Ro), and I think it already did, because there are different estimations of the Ro in different studies.

“perhaps the general public needs both tests: 1) the standard test.. 2) the antibody test… If the pass both tests then they should be good to go! Does that make sense?”- to allow people who test negative for the standard test to go out and about, stimulating the economy, the following will need to be done: immediately after administering the test, the people tested will need to be isolated where there is no chance for them getting infected after the test. Then when the results arrive, those with negative results will be allowed out to join the public,  only the public cannot include people who were not yet tested.

So your idea will take emptying the public from people completely, testing the first batch of people, letting out into pubic those tested negative, then testing the second batch of people, batch by batch. I don’t think it’s practical. What is practical is the current measures of isolation and waiting for the virus to peak in every population it has infected, and then die out, like what happened with the SARS of the early 200s and the MERS later.

I look forward to read more from you.

anita

Dear Reader:

A summary from my previous thread on the topic, titled “Coronavirus”:

The first case of the current pandemic infection is believed to have taken place November 17, 2019 in China. On January 30, 2020, WHO (World Health Organization) designated the outbreak at the time a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern”. On March 11, 2020, WHO declared it a pandemic.

SARS stands for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. It is a viral respiratory disease caused by coronaviruses (SARS-Cov) and it spreads from one person to the next in the same ways that the flu does. The current is the second SARS outbreak.

The first SARS outbreak started in China in November 2002, and ended in July 2003 (WHO declared it contained July 5, 2003, but 4 SARS cases were reported in China between Dec 2003 and Jan 2004).  It spread in 17 countries,  involved 8,098 cases, resulting in 774 death (9.6 fatality rate), with the majority of cases in mainland China and Hong Kong.

In comparison, the second SARS outbreak (the current) started in China, spread into about 200 countries, and (according to worldometers.info/coronavirus, today) , the number of cases is 585,000 (and growing), resulting in 26,827 deaths so far (17% mortality rate), with the majority of cases currently in the USA, Italy, China and Spain, in this order.

The current SARS pandemic, involves so far 72 times the number of cases, and 35 times the number of deaths (mortality rate almost double) than the SARS outbreak of Nov 2002-July 2003.

The CDC (Center for Disease Control, USA) and Canada’s National Microbiology Laboratory identified the SARS genome in April 2003, during the first SARS outbreak.

MERS, stands for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome was another outbreak of a respiratory infection caused by coronaviruses (MERS-Cov). The first identified case occurred in 2012 in Saudi Arabia and most cases occurred in the Arabian Peninsula. There was a further outbreak of MERS in 2015 in South Korea and another in 2018. There were just under 2,000 cases total as of April 2017 (36% fatality rate). In May 2019, only 14 cases were reported to WHO by Saudi authorities.

Influenza is not caused by the coronaviruses but by a variety of Influenza viruses. It spreads around the world in yearly outbreaks, resulting, according to WHO,  “in about 3-5 million cases of severe illness and about 290,000- 65,000 deaths” every year. About 20% of unvaccinated children and 10% of unvaccinated adults are infected each year. Death occurs mostly in high risk groups- the young, the old, and those with other health problems.

Notice the following: www. cdc. gov/flu: “CDC estimates that, from October 1, 2019, through March 7, 2020, there have been: 36,000,000-51,000,000 flu illnesses, 17,000,000-24,000,000 flu medical visits, 370,000-670,000 flu hospitalizations, 22,000-55,000 flu death”-

– this means that in the USA alone, in five months, here were 36-51 million cases of the flu, which is (at 50 millions) 100 times the number of current COVID-19 total cases in the world. But the flu involves a way lesser mortality rate (22,00-55,000 flu deaths compared to current 26,827 COVID-19 deaths).

I am going to stop here, need a break (this is stressful!)

anita